luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2024 · January 11, 2025

Chargers at Texans, Wild Card 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Chargers 32–12, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Texans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:21 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 12
Houston Texans 32

January 11, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +53 Texans lucky · −53 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 5, Texans win 5.

  1. 1 LAC 31 HOU 10
  2. 2 LAC 45 HOU 30
  3. 3 LAC 29 HOU 20
  4. 4 LAC 21 HOU 16
  5. 5 LAC 28 HOU 26
  6. 6 LAC 26 HOU 28
  7. 7 LAC 24 HOU 30
  8. 8 LAC 33 HOU 43
  9. 9 LAC 16 HOU 30
  10. 10 LAC 13 HOU 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 53% of them, Texans 47%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+14.0%
Chargers by 9–1615.0%
Chargers by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation4.3%
Texans by 1–820.1%
Texans by 9–1614.2%
Texans by 17+11.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Texans by 20, without the luck Texans by 20.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 35 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Dicker, 39 yds made · 92% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 2 for 10 yards, Texans 8 for 86 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:10 Fair Catch Interference on the Texans (Kris Boyd), 15 yards +4% LAC +0.9 pts
Q1 4:58 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards +4% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 3:49 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Danielle Hunter), 5 yards +6% LAC +1.3 pts
Q2 15:00 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.4 pts
Q2 3:26 Tripping on the Texans, 11 yards +4% LAC +1.2 pts
Q3 12:50 Face Mask on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 15 yards +6% LAC +1.8 pts
Q3 7:19 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q3 6:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Joe Mixon), 15 yards +2% LAC +1.1 pts
Q3 6:51 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LAC +1.0 pts
Q3 6:24 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.1 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:37 The Texans fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LAC HOU: Punt
2 Q2 8:02 The Chargers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% LAC LAC: Punt
3 Q2 2:24 The Texans converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedThe Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:02 The Texans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q3 12:57 The Texans fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LAC HOU: Field goal
6 Q3 12:50 Face Mask on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2446 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +6% LAC LAC: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 10:16 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +9% HOU LAC: Punt
8 Q3 0:21 The Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throwsReturn touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +20% HOU LAC: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Shaq Mason (HOU G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Elijah Molden (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 0% · Texans 100%

Final margin
Texans by 20
Luck in points
0.5 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 20.5
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 53% · Texans 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2024 games · Chargers · Texans

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