luckadjusted

Wild Card 2024 · January 11, 2025

Chargers at Texans, Wild Card 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Chargers 32–12, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 3.8 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:21 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 12
Houston Texans 32

January 11, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +54 Texans lucky · −54 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 5, Texans win 5.

  1. 1 LAC 34 HOU 10
  2. 2 LAC 29 HOU 13
  3. 3 LAC 41 HOU 30
  4. 4 LAC 24 HOU 19
  5. 5 LAC 26 HOU 24
  6. 6 LAC 20 HOU 22
  7. 7 LAC 20 HOU 26
  8. 8 LAC 13 HOU 23
  9. 9 LAC 9 HOU 23
  10. 10 LAC 16 HOU 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 54% of them, Texans 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+13.0%
Chargers by 9–1616.0%
Chargers by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation5.1%
Texans by 1–819.4%
Texans by 9–1613.6%
Texans by 17+12.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 23.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Dicker, 39 yds made · 92% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:46 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% LAC HOU: Punt
2 Q2 8:02 The Chargers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +8% LAC LAC: Punt
3 Q2 2:24 The Texans converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:02 The Texans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +17% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q3 13:45 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% HOU HOU: Turnover
6 Q3 10:16 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% HOU LAC: Punt
7 Q3 0:21 The Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +20% HOU LAC: Turnover
8 Q4 10:50 The Chargers converted 3rd & 263rd & 4th downs · 10% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Shaq Mason (HOU G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Elijah Molden (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 0% · Texans 100%

Final margin
Texans by 20
Luck in points
3.8 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 23.8
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 54% · Texans 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2024 games · Chargers · Texans

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