luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2024 · January 13, 2025

Vikings vs Rams, Wild Card 2024: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Vikings 27–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:48 left): Return touchdown by the Rams, worth 28 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 9
Los Angeles Rams 27

January 13, 2025 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +19 Rams about even · −19 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 27 LA 13
  2. 2 MIN 32 LA 29
  3. 3 MIN 10 LA 12
  4. 4 MIN 17 LA 22
  5. 5 MIN 17 LA 24
  6. 6 MIN 10 LA 21
  7. 7 MIN 13 LA 27
  8. 8 MIN 10 LA 27
  9. 9 MIN 16 LA 37
  10. 10 MIN 24 LA 54

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 19% of them, Rams 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+2.1%
Vikings by 9–165.3%
Vikings by 1–811.5%
Level after regulation2.4%
Rams by 1–827.2%
Rams by 9–1621.8%
Rams by 17+29.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Rams by 18, without the luck Rams by 18.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Karty, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • W. Reichard, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Karty, 44 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 2 for 20 yards, Rams 10 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:41 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jonathan Bullard), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% LA +1.6 pts
Q1 5:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams, 15 yards +3% MIN +1.4 pts
Q2 11:50 Roughing the Kicker on the Rams (Jake Hummel), 15 yards +8% MIN +3.8 pts
Q2 10:14 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% MIN +2.1 pts
Q3 5:47 Defensive Holding on the Rams, 5 yards 0% MIN +1.0 pts
Q4 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Kamren Kinchens), 15 yards +1% MIN +1.8 pts
Q4 12:01 Face Mask on the Vikings (Blake Cashman), 15 yards 0% LA +1.8 pts
Q4 10:39 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Jordan Whittington), 10 yards 0% MIN +0.9 pts
Q4 10:18 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Davis Allen), 10 yards 0% MIN +1.1 pts
Q4 9:51 False Start on the Rams (Colby Parkinson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.3 pts
Q4 5:01 Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 5 yards 0% LA 0.0 pts
Q4 2:40 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.4 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:41 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jonathan Bullard), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 11 flags in 2305 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +6% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:50 Roughing the Kicker on the Rams (Jake Hummel), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 962 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +8% MIN MIN: Turnover
3 Q2 10:14 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% MIN MIN: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 6:59 The Vikings converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +3% MIN MIN: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 4:48 The Vikings fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams +28% LA MIN: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 3:14 The Vikings converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +4% MIN MIN: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 2:00 A. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 161 catchable balls before this +3% LA MIN: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 1:32 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +5% LA MIN: End of half

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 18
Luck in points
0.6 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 18.6
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 19% · Rams 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2024 games · Vikings · Rams

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