luckadjusted

Wild Card 2024 · January 13, 2025

Vikings vs Rams, Wild Card 2024: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Vikings 27–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11.4 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:48 left): the Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 46 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 9
Los Angeles Rams 27

January 13, 2025 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +34 Rams lucky · −34 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 3, Rams win 7.

  1. 1 MIN 26 LA 7
  2. 2 MIN 20 LA 13
  3. 3 MIN 16 LA 13
  4. 4 MIN 28 LA 30
  5. 5 MIN 28 LA 31
  6. 6 MIN 27 LA 33
  7. 7 MIN 15 LA 25
  8. 8 MIN 21 LA 34
  9. 9 MIN 26 LA 43
  10. 10 MIN 7 LA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 34% of them, Rams 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+5.0%
Vikings by 9–1610.1%
Vikings by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation2.1%
Rams by 1–827.3%
Rams by 9–1621.3%
Rams by 17+16.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 24.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Karty, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • W. Reichard, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Karty, 44 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:41 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jonathan Bullard), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 11 flags in 2305 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +6% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:50 Roughing the Kicker on the Rams (Jake Hummel), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 962 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +8% MIN MIN: Turnover
3 Q2 10:21 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% LA MIN: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 10:14 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% MIN MIN: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 6:59 The Vikings converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% MIN MIN: Opp touchdown
6 Q2 4:48 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams +46% LA MIN: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 3:14 The Vikings converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +4% MIN MIN: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 1:32 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +5% LA MIN: End of half

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 18
Luck in points
6.7 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 24.7
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 34% · Rams 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2024 games · Vikings · Rams

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