luckadjusted

Wild Card 2024 · January 12, 2025

Packers at Eagles, Wild Card 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Packers 22–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.6 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:38 left): the Packers fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 8 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 10
Philadelphia Eagles 22

January 12, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −5.5

Luck index +16 Eagles about even · −16 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 2, Eagles win 8.

  1. 1 GB 27 PHI 16
  2. 2 GB 19 PHI 16
  3. 3 GB 3 PHI 6
  4. 4 GB 20 PHI 26
  5. 5 GB 0 PHI 9
  6. 6 GB 19 PHI 30
  7. 7 GB 6 PHI 20
  8. 8 GB 27 PHI 44
  9. 9 GB 14 PHI 35
  10. 10 GB 6 PHI 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 16% of them, Eagles 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+1.3%
Packers by 9–165.0%
Packers by 1–89.3%
Level after regulation1.4%
Eagles by 1–824.8%
Eagles by 9–1622.4%
Eagles by 17+35.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 5.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. McManus, 38 yds missed · 91% expected
  • B. McManus, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Elliott, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Elliott, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:10 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% PHI GB: Punt
2 Q2 7:19 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +5% GB GB: Missed field goal
3 Q2 0:49 The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% GB GB: Turnover
4 Q3 8:17 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% GB GB: Field goal
5 Q3 6:55 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q3 6:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Quinyon Mitchell), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 978 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +8% GB GB: Field goal
7 Q3 6:38 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB GB: Field goal
8 Q4 2:45 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% PHI PHI: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 24% · Eagles 76%

Final margin
Eagles by 12
Luck in points
6.7 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Packers 16% · Eagles 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2024 games · Packers · Eagles

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