luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2024 · January 12, 2025

Commanders at Buccaneers, Wild Card 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Buccaneers 23–20, but the replays lean toward the Buccaneers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:05 left): the Commanders were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 18 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Washington Commanders 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

January 12, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3

Luck index +67 Commanders very lucky · −67 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 3, Buccaneers win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 35 TB 20
  2. 2 WAS 30 TB 23
  3. 3 WAS 23 TB 20
  4. 4 WAS 28 TB 30
  5. 5 WAS 17 TB 21
  6. 6 WAS 7 TB 13
  7. 7 WAS 29 TB 38
  8. 8 WAS 9 TB 20
  9. 9 WAS 14 TB 30
  10. 10 WAS 19 TB 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 33% of them, Buccaneers 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+2.9%
Commanders by 9–167.9%
Commanders by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation2.7%
Buccaneers by 1–831.3%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.7%
Buccaneers by 17+14.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.6 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 3, without the luck Buccaneers by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 52 yds made · 68% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 5 for 39 yards, Buccaneers 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 9:31 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (YaYa Diaby), 8 yards +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 8:49 Chop Block on the Buccaneers (Bucky Irving), 15 yards +3% WAS +1.3 pts
Q2 3:14 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% WAS +1.9 pts
Q2 0:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Marshon Lattimore), 11 yards +5% TB +1.2 pts
Q3 10:25 Face Mask on the Commanders (Dorance Armstrong Jr.), 15 yards +5% TB +1.8 pts
Q3 9:22 False Start on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.5 pts
Q3 7:17 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.7 pts
Q3 5:27 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 3 yards +4% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 4:31 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yards +1% WAS +0.2 pts
Q3 2:33 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +15% TB +2.9 pts
Q3 0:25 False Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TB +0.4 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 22 yards +14% WAS +3.0 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:50 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +13% TB WAS: Touchdown
2 Q3 2:33 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% TB TB: Turnover
3 Q3 1:19 The Commanders converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +15% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2851 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +14% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 14:05 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +18% TB WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:58 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% WAS TB: Field goal
7 Q4 5:32 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +12% WAS TB: Field goal
8 Q4 3:20 The Commanders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +12% WAS WAS: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Christian Izien (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 36% · Buccaneers 64%

Final margin
Commanders by 3
Luck in points
5.6 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 33% · Buccaneers 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2024 games · Commanders · Buccaneers

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