luckadjusted

Wild Card 2024 · January 12, 2025

Commanders at Buccaneers, Wild Card 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Buccaneers 23–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 2.1 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:45 left): C. McLaughlin made 32-yard field goal, worth 34 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Washington Commanders 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

January 12, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −3

Luck index +53 Commanders lucky · −53 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 5, Buccaneers win 5.

  1. 1 WAS 38 TB 21
  2. 2 WAS 24 TB 13
  3. 3 WAS 34 TB 27
  4. 4 WAS 28 TB 24
  5. 5 WAS 26 TB 24
  6. 6 WAS 21 TB 23
  7. 7 WAS 13 TB 17
  8. 8 WAS 23 TB 31
  9. 9 WAS 10 TB 23
  10. 10 WAS 0 TB 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 47% of them, Buccaneers 53%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+7.1%
Commanders by 9–1613.1%
Commanders by 1–824.5%
Level after regulation7.6%
Buccaneers by 1–825.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1613.2%
Buccaneers by 17+8.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 2.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 50 yds made · 76% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 37 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:39 The Commanders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +14% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
2 Q3 2:33 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% TB TB: Turnover
3 Q3 1:19 The Commanders converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +17% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2851 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +15% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 14:05 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +20% TB WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:50 The Commanders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +15% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:45 C. McLaughlin made 32-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +34% TB –
8 Q4 0:03 Z. Gonzalez made 37-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +15% WAS WAS: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Christian Izien (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 40% · Buccaneers 60%

Final margin
Commanders by 3
Luck in points
5.5 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 47% · Buccaneers 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2024 games · Commanders · Buccaneers

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