luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · final · regular season

Expected wins, 2023: what each team’s play was worth

The Bengals won 9 games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.2, the biggest gap in the league, and points scored and allowed put them at 8.0. The Commanders are the other way round: 4 wins from play worth 7.1.

TeamRecordReplay winsCoin-flip winsPythagoreanBetting lineWins − replay
Ravens 13–413.814.7 13.310.3−0.8
49ers 12–513.713.6 13.012.2−1.7
Cowboys 12–511.011.6 12.911.1+1.0
Lions 12–510.511.6 10.010.0+1.5
Bills 11–613.613.8 12.011.1−2.6
Chiefs 11–612.711.5 10.811.3−1.7
Dolphins 11–612.310.7 10.810.6−1.3
Eagles 11–610.38.5 8.610.6+0.7
Browns 11–68.29.7 9.48.6+2.8
Rams 10–710.08.7 9.28.40.0
Texans 10–78.89.0 9.28.1+1.2
Steelers 10–77.46.8 7.98.4+2.6
Jaguars 9–89.78.1 8.79.3−0.7
Saints 9–89.29.6 10.59.5−0.2
Packers 9–88.67.4 9.48.1+0.4
Colts 9–88.48.9 8.07.9+0.6
Buccaneers 9–87.87.7 9.27.6+1.2
Seahawks 9–87.47.6 7.58.3+1.6
Bengals 9–86.28.0 8.08.9+2.8
Broncos 8–98.27.0 7.08.0−0.2
Raiders 8–97.97.1 8.57.2+0.1
Vikings 7–109.57.3 8.08.1−2.5
Falcons 7–109.47.7 7.08.8−2.4
Bears 7–107.38.9 8.06.9−0.3
Jets 7–105.37.4 5.86.6+1.7
Titans 6–115.67.6 6.77.1+0.4
Giants 6–113.56.7 4.55.5+2.5
Chargers 5–126.87.4 7.18.7−1.8
Commanders 4–137.14.3 4.36.6−3.1
Patriots 4–134.55.7 4.46.9−0.5
Cardinals 4–134.54.1 5.45.0−0.5
Panthers 2–152.83.4 3.56.1−0.8
Replay wins
Summed over the season: how often the team wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams actually played.
Coin-flip wins
The same with only kicks, bounces, drops, conversions and calls re-rolled. The number that best predicts the rest of a season: correlation 0.437 against 0.378 for actual wins.
Pythagorean
From points scored and allowed: games × PF2.37 / (PF2.37 + PA2.37).
Betting line
Summed win chances from each game’s closing spread: what the market expected before kickoff.

Luck-adjusted standings

Each division: record on the left, replay wins on the right. A line that falls from left to right belongs to a team whose record ran ahead of its play.

AFC East
RecordReplay wins
AFC North
RecordReplay wins
AFC South
RecordReplay wins
AFC West
RecordReplay wins
NFC East
RecordReplay wins
NFC North
RecordReplay wins
NFC South
RecordReplay wins
NFC West
RecordReplay wins

Adjust the assumptions

Change how much of each kind of play counts as luck, and every team’s coin-flip wins are recomputed for the whole season.

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

Tested on 19,000 lucky breaks: no momentum, so it’s off by default. Why

#TeamWinsCoin-flip winsLuck
1Ravens1314.7−1.7
2Bills1113.8−2.8
349ers1213.6−1.6
4Lions1211.6+0.4
5Cowboys1211.6+0.4
6Chiefs1111.5−0.5
7Dolphins1110.6+0.4
8Browns119.7+1.3
9Saints99.6−0.6
10Texans109.0+1.0
11Colts98.9+0.1
12Bears78.8−1.8
13Rams108.7+1.3
14Eagles118.5+2.5
15Jaguars98.1+0.9
16Bengals97.9+1.1
17Falcons77.7−0.7
18Buccaneers97.6+1.4
19Titans67.6−1.6
20Seahawks97.6+1.4
21Jets77.5−0.5
22Packers97.4+1.6
23Chargers57.4−2.4
24Vikings77.3−0.3
25Raiders87.1+0.9
26Broncos87.0+1.0
27Steelers106.8+3.2
28Giants66.7−0.7
29Patriots45.7−1.7
30Commanders44.3−0.3
31Cardinals44.2−0.2
32Panthers23.4−1.4

2023 luck rankings · One-score games · Referee calls · Methodology