2023 NFL season · final · decided by 8 points or fewer

One-score games, 2023

The Steelers went 9–2 in one-score games; replayed with the same day’s form, they win 5.6 of those 11, the most close-game luck in the league. The Bills went 6–6, from play worth 8.8 wins. If every one-score game had gone the other way, the 49ers would lead the league at 14–3.

Close-game records look like clutch and rarely last: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s one-score win rate carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record.

Team	One-score record	Replay wins in those	Close-game luck	Record	If they flipped
Steelers	9–2	5.6 of 11	+3.4	10–7	3–14
Browns	6–2	3.4 of 8	+2.6	11–6	7–10
Eagles	8–3	7.1 of 11	+0.9	11–6	6–11
Texans	7–3	6.0 of 10	+1.0	10–7	6–11
Colts	6–3	5.4 of 9	+0.6	9–8	6–11
Lions	5–3	4.4 of 8	+0.6	12–5	10–7
Seahawks	6–4	4.3 of 10	+1.7	9–8	7–10
Rams	6–4	6.3 of 10	−0.3	10–7	8–9
Cowboys	3–2	2.4 of 5	+0.6	12–5	11–6
Dolphins	4–3	4.8 of 7	−0.8	11–6	10–7
Bengals	5–4	2.5 of 9	+2.5	9–8	8–9
Broncos	5–4	5.1 of 9	−0.1	8–9	7–10
Packers	6–5	6.0 of 11	0.0	9–8	8–9
Chiefs	6–5	7.6 of 11	−1.6	11–6	10–7
Bills	6–6	8.8 of 12	−2.8	11–6	11–6
Raiders	5–5	4.5 of 10	+0.5	8–9	8–9
Giants	4–4	2.5 of 8	+1.5	6–11	6–11
Jets	4–4	2.3 of 8	+1.7	7–10	7–10
Ravens	4–4	5.6 of 8	−1.6	13–4	13–4
Vikings	6–8	8.3 of 14	−2.3	7–10	9–8
Buccaneers	3–4	1.9 of 7	+1.1	9–8	10–7
Jaguars	3–4	3.6 of 7	−0.6	9–8	10–7
Titans	5–7	4.6 of 12	+0.4	6–11	8–9
Falcons	4–6	6.2 of 10	−2.2	7–10	9–8
Commanders	4–6	5.2 of 10	−1.2	4–13	6–11
Patriots	4–8	4.2 of 12	−0.2	4–13	8–9
Saints	3–6	4.0 of 9	−1.0	9–8	12–5
Cardinals	2–5	2.5 of 7	−0.5	4–13	7–10
Chargers	3–8	4.9 of 11	−1.9	5–12	10–7
Bears	2–6	2.9 of 8	−0.9	7–10	11–6
Panthers	2–6	1.6 of 8	+0.4	2–15	6–11
49ers	1–3	2.3 of 4	−1.3	12–5	14–3