2023 NFL season · final
Regression candidates for 2024
Due to fall back in 2024: the Steelers, the Eagles and the Packers, whose records ran furthest ahead of their coin flips in 2023. Due to bounce back: the Bills, the Chargers and the Bears.
The measure is coin-flip wins: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call re-rolled, everything else kept. A record far above it was built on bounces. It’s the best of our numbers at predicting the rest of a season: from weeks 1–9 to weeks 10–18 it correlates at 0.44 with the later win share, against 0.38 for the record itself (224 team-seasons). One-score records barely carry over at all: 0.12 from one season to the next. Methodology
Due to fall back
Won more than their coin flips, 2023.
Due to bounce back
Won fewer than their coin flips, 2023.
| Team | Record | Coin-flip wins | Gap | Replay wins | One-score | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bills | 11–6 | 13.8 | −2.8 | 13.6 | 6–6 | 13–4 |
 Chargers | 5–12 | 7.4 | −2.4 | 6.8 | 3–8 | 11–6 |
 Bears | 7–10 | 8.9 | −1.9 | 7.3 | 2–6 | 5–12 |
 Ravens | 13–4 | 14.7 | −1.7 | 13.8 | 4–4 | 12–5 |
 Patriots | 4–13 | 5.7 | −1.7 | 4.5 | 4–8 | 4–13 |
 Titans | 6–11 | 7.6 | −1.6 | 5.6 | 5–7 | 3–14 |
 49ers | 12–5 | 13.6 | −1.6 | 13.7 | 1–3 | 6–11 |
 Panthers | 2–15 | 3.4 | −1.4 | 2.8 | 2–6 | 5–12 |
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019
2023 luck rankings · One-score records · Expected wins · Luckiest teams since 2019