2021 NFL season · final

Regression candidates for 2022

Due to fall back in 2022: the Steelers, the Raiders and the Falcons, whose records ran furthest ahead of their coin flips in 2021. Due to bounce back: the Bills, the 49ers and the Texans.

The measure is coin-flip wins: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call re-rolled, everything else kept. A record far above it was built on bounces. It’s the best of our numbers at predicting the rest of a season: from weeks 1–9 to weeks 10–18 it correlates at 0.44 with the later win share, against 0.38 for the record itself (224 team-seasons). One-score records barely carry over at all: 0.12 from one season to the next. Methodology

Due to fall back

Won more than their coin flips, 2021.

Team	Record	Coin-flip wins	Gap	Replay wins	One-score	2022
Steelers	9–7–1	6.1	+3.4	5.8	8–2–1	9–8
Raiders	10–7	7.2	+2.8	9.2	7–2	6–11
Falcons	7–10	5.2	+1.8	6.7	7–2	7–10
Titans	12–5	10.6	+1.4	9.5	6–2	7–10
Ravens	8–9	6.6	+1.4	8.8	6–6	10–7
Rams	12–5	10.9	+1.1	11.8	4–2	5–12
Cardinals	11–6	9.9	+1.1	10.5	3–4	4–13
Giants	4–13	3.1	+0.9	3.9	3–3	9–7–1

Due to bounce back

Won fewer than their coin flips, 2021.

Team	Record	Coin-flip wins	Gap	Replay wins	One-score	2022
Bills	11–6	13.5	−2.5	12.2	0–5	13–3
49ers	10–7	12.1	−2.1	11.3	5–5	13–4
Texans	4–13	5.6	−1.6	3.4	0–4	3–13–1
Chargers	9–8	10.2	−1.2	10.8	5–5	10–7
Bears	6–11	7.1	−1.1	6.6	3–3	3–14
Vikings	8–9	9.0	−1.0	6.4	6–8	13–4
Seahawks	7–10	7.9	−0.9	7.3	3–5	9–8
Browns	8–9	8.8	−0.8	9.5	5–6	7–10

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2020 · 2019

2021 luck rankings · One-score records · Expected wins · Luckiest teams since 2019