2021 NFL season · final · decided by 8 points or fewer

One-score games, 2021

The Steelers went 8–2–1 in one-score games; replayed with the same day’s form, they win 4.8 of those 11, the most close-game luck in the league. The Bills went 0–5, from play worth 2.2 wins. If every one-score game had gone the other way, the Bills would lead the league at 16–1.

Close-game records look like clutch and rarely last: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s one-score win rate carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record.

Team	One-score record	Replay wins in those	Close-game luck	Record	If they flipped
Buccaneers	6–0	4.9 of 6	+1.1	13–4	7–10
Raiders	7–2	5.7 of 9	+1.3	10–7	5–12
Falcons	7–2	5.5 of 9	+1.5	7–10	2–15
Steelers	8–2–1	4.8 of 11	+3.7	9–7–1	3–13–1
Titans	6–2	4.0 of 8	+2.0	12–5	8–9
Packers	6–3	4.9 of 9	+1.1	13–4	10–7
Rams	4–2	3.7 of 6	+0.3	12–5	10–7
Cowboys	5–3	5.0 of 8	0.0	12–5	10–7
Chiefs	5–3	5.5 of 8	−0.5	12–5	10–7
Dolphins	4–3	3.5 of 7	+0.5	9–8	8–9
Washington	5–4	4.7 of 9	+0.3	7–10	6–11
Ravens	6–6	6.3 of 12	−0.3	8–9	8–9
49ers	5–5	6.4 of 10	−1.4	10–7	10–7
Chargers	5–5	6.2 of 10	−1.2	9–8	9–8
Patriots	3–3	2.2 of 6	+0.8	10–7	10–7
Giants	3–3	1.5 of 6	+1.5	4–13	4–13
Bears	3–3	3.1 of 6	−0.1	6–11	6–11
Browns	5–6	6.1 of 11	−1.1	8–9	9–8
Bengals	4–5	3.9 of 9	+0.1	10–7	11–6
Jets	4–5	3.6 of 9	+0.4	4–13	5–12
Vikings	6–8	5.4 of 14	+0.6	8–9	10–7
Cardinals	3–4	3.3 of 7	−0.3	11–6	12–5
Saints	2–3	3.2 of 5	−1.2	9–8	10–7
Seahawks	3–5	2.8 of 8	+0.2	7–10	9–8
Eagles	2–4	2.6 of 6	−0.6	9–8	11–6
Jaguars	2–4	2.5 of 6	−0.5	3–14	5–12
Colts	2–5	3.5 of 7	−1.5	9–8	12–5
Lions	2–6–1	3.7 of 9	−1.2	3–13–1	7–9–1
Panthers	2–6	3.1 of 8	−1.1	5–12	9–8
Broncos	1–5	2.0 of 6	−1.0	7–10	11–6
Bills	0–5	2.2 of 5	−2.2	11–6	16–1
Texans	0–4	1.1 of 4	−1.1	4–13	8–9