2021 NFL season · final · regular season

Expected wins, 2021: what each team’s play was worth

The Steelers won 9.5 games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.8, the biggest gap in the league, and points scored and allowed put them at 7.0. The Jaguars are the other way round: 3 wins from play worth 5.5.

Team	Record	Replay wins	Coin-flip wins	Pythagorean	Betting line	Wins − replay
Buccaneers	13–4	14.7	12.6	12.0	12.6	−1.7
Packers	13–4	11.0	13.4	10.4	10.4	+2.0
Chiefs	12–5	12.3	12.5	11.2	11.4	−0.3
Rams	12–5	11.8	10.9	10.6	11.2	+0.2
Cowboys	12–5	11.4	12.5	12.2	10.5	+0.6
Titans	12–5	9.5	10.6	10.2	8.9	+2.5
Bills	11–6	12.2	13.5	13.1	12.0	−1.2
Cardinals	11–6	10.5	9.9	10.5	10.0	+0.5
49ers	10–7	11.3	12.1	10.1	10.2	−1.3
Patriots	10–7	9.7	9.5	12.4	10.0	+0.3
Bengals	10–7	9.4	9.1	10.5	8.7	+0.6
Raiders	10–7	9.2	7.2	6.9	7.6	+0.8
Steelers	9–7–1	5.8	6.1	7.0	7.9	+3.7
Chargers	9–8	10.8	10.2	8.8	9.6	−1.8
Colts	9–8	9.9	9.0	10.6	9.2	−0.9
Eagles	9–8	8.6	9.8	9.9	8.6	+0.4
Saints	9–8	8.1	9.7	9.3	8.5	+0.9
Dolphins	9–8	6.6	8.6	7.6	7.9	+2.4
Browns	8–9	9.5	8.8	7.9	9.3	−1.5
Ravens	8–9	8.8	6.6	8.4	9.3	−0.8
Vikings	8–9	6.4	9.0	8.5	8.6	+1.6
Broncos	7–10	8.2	7.7	8.9	8.7	−1.2
Seahawks	7–10	7.3	7.9	9.3	8.7	−0.3
Washington	7–10	7.2	6.5	6.0	6.7	−0.2
Falcons	7–10	6.7	5.2	4.9	6.9	+0.3
Bears	6–11	6.6	7.1	5.9	6.3	−0.6
Panthers	5–12	5.9	5.7	5.7	7.4	−0.9
Jets	4–13	4.9	4.4	4.1	5.2	−0.9
Giants	4–13	3.9	3.1	4.1	5.5	+0.1
Texans	4–13	3.4	5.6	4.1	4.1	+0.6
Lions	3–13–1	4.8	3.9	5.1	4.7	−1.3
Jaguars	3–14	5.5	3.2	3.4	5.6	−2.5

Replay wins: Summed over the season: how often the team wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams actually played.
Coin-flip wins: The same with only kicks, bounces, drops, conversions and calls re-rolled. The number that best predicts the rest of a season: correlation 0.437 against 0.378 for actual wins.
Pythagorean: From points scored and allowed: games × PF^2.37 / (PF^2.37 + PA^2.37).
Betting line: Summed win chances from each game’s closing spread: what the market expected before kickoff.

Luck-adjusted standings

Each division: record on the left, replay wins on the right. A line that falls from left to right belongs to a team whose record ran ahead of its play.

AFC East

BUF 11–6

NE 10–7

MIA 9–8

NYJ 4–13 12.29.76.64.9

RecordReplay wins

AFC North

CIN 10–7

PIT 9–7–1

BAL 8–9

CLE 8–9 9.45.88.89.5

RecordReplay wins

AFC South

TEN 12–5

IND 9–8

HOU 4–13

JAX 3–14 9.59.93.45.5

RecordReplay wins

AFC West

KC 12–5

LV 10–7

LAC 9–8

DEN 7–10 12.39.210.88.2

RecordReplay wins

NFC East

DAL 12–5

PHI 9–8

WAS 7–10

NYG 4–13 11.48.67.23.9

RecordReplay wins

NFC North

GB 13–4

MIN 8–9

CHI 6–11

DET 3–13–1 11.06.46.64.8

RecordReplay wins

NFC South

TB 13–4

NO 9–8

ATL 7–10

CAR 5–12 14.78.16.75.9

RecordReplay wins

NFC West

LA 12–5

ARI 11–6

SF 10–7

SEA 7–10 11.810.511.37.3

RecordReplay wins

Adjust the assumptions

Change how much of each kind of play counts as luck, and every team’s coin-flip wins are recomputed for the whole season.

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 25%Fumble bounces 75%Interceptions 0%Drops 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 100%Pre-snap flags 0%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

Tested on 19,000 lucky breaks: no momentum, so it’s off by default. Why

#	Team	Wins	Coin-flip wins	Luck
1	Bills	11	13.6	−2.6
2	Packers	13	13.5	−0.5
3	Buccaneers	13	12.6	+0.4
4	Chiefs	12	12.6	−0.6
5	Cowboys	12	12.5	−0.5
6	49ers	10	12.1	−2.1
7	Rams	12	10.9	+1.1
8	Titans	12	10.6	+1.4
9	Chargers	9	10.2	−1.2
10	Cardinals	11	9.9	+1.1
11	Eagles	9	9.8	−0.8
12	Saints	9	9.7	−0.7
13	Patriots	10	9.5	+0.5
14	Bengals	10	9.1	+0.9
15	Colts	9	9.0	0.0
16	Vikings	8	9.0	−1.0
17	Browns	8	8.8	−0.8
18	Dolphins	9	8.6	+0.4
19	Seahawks	7	8.0	−1.0
20	Broncos	7	7.7	−0.7
21	Raiders	10	7.2	+2.8
22	Bears	6	7.1	−1.1
23	Ravens	8	6.6	+1.4
24	Washington	7	6.5	+0.5
25	Steelers	9.5	6.1	+3.4
26	Panthers	5	5.7	−0.7
27	Texans	4	5.6	−1.6
28	Falcons	7	5.2	+1.8
29	Jets	4	4.4	−0.4
30	Lions	3.5	3.9	−0.4
31	Jaguars	3	3.1	−0.1
32	Giants	4	3.1	+0.9

2021 luck rankings · One-score games · Referee calls · Methodology