luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · final

Regression candidates for 2023

Due to fall back in 2023: the Vikings, the Chargers and the Bengals, whose records ran furthest ahead of their coin flips in 2022. Due to bounce back: the Browns, the Cardinals and the Titans.

The measure is coin-flip wins: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call re-rolled, everything else kept. A record far above it was built on bounces. It’s the best of our numbers at predicting the rest of a season: from weeks 1–9 to weeks 10–18 it correlates at 0.44 with the later win share, against 0.38 for the record itself (224 team-seasons). One-score records barely carry over at all: 0.12 from one season to the next. Methodology

Due to fall back

Won more than their coin flips, 2022.

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsGapReplay winsOne-score2023
Vikings 13–48.0 +5.08.011–0 7–10
Chargers 10–76.9 +3.18.27–5 5–12
Bengals 12–49.9 +2.111.35–3 9–8
Eagles 14–312.0 +2.012.67–1 11–6
Giants 9–7–17.7 +1.89.28–4–1 6–11
Cowboys 12–510.5 +1.510.85–2 12–5
Commanders 8–8–17.1 +1.47.05–3–1 4–13
Steelers 9–88.0 +1.07.57–5 10–7

Due to bounce back

Won fewer than their coin flips, 2022.

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsGapReplay winsOne-score2023
Browns 7–109.8 −2.89.62–6 11–6
Cardinals 4–136.4 −2.45.12–6 4–13
Titans 7–109.4 −2.46.85–6 6–11
Broncos 5–127.1 −2.17.64–9 8–9
Jaguars 9–810.8 −1.89.74–6 9–8
Raiders 6–117.7 −1.78.04–9 8–9
Saints 7–108.6 −1.69.65–6 9–8
Jets 7–108.2 −1.26.54–6 7–10

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019

2022 luck rankings · One-score records · Expected wins · Luckiest teams since 2019