2022 NFL season · final · decided by 8 points or fewer

One-score games, 2022

The Vikings went 11–0 in one-score games; replayed with the same day’s form, they win 6.4 of those 11, the most close-game luck in the league. The Browns went 2–6, from play worth 4.5 wins. If every one-score game had gone the other way, the 49ers would lead the league at 11–6.

Close-game records look like clutch and rarely last: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s one-score win rate carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record.

Team	One-score record	Replay wins in those	Close-game luck	Record	If they flipped
Vikings	11–0	6.4 of 11	+4.6	13–4	2–15
Eagles	7–1	5.9 of 8	+1.1	14–3	8–9
49ers	3–1	2.9 of 4	+0.1	13–4	11–6
Cowboys	5–2	4.7 of 7	+0.3	12–5	9–8
Chiefs	7–3	7.4 of 10	−0.4	14–3	10–7
Bills	6–3	6.7 of 9	−0.7	13–3	10–6
Giants	8–4–1	7.5 of 13	+1.0	9–7–1	5–11–1
Bengals	5–3	5.5 of 8	−0.5	12–4	10–6
Commanders	5–3–1	3.5 of 9	+2.0	8–8–1	6–10–1
Buccaneers	6–4	6.0 of 10	0.0	8–9	6–11
Chargers	7–5	5.3 of 12	+1.7	10–7	8–9
Steelers	7–5	6.0 of 12	+1.0	9–8	7–10
Ravens	6–5	5.6 of 11	+0.4	10–7	9–8
Dolphins	6–5	5.6 of 11	+0.4	9–8	8–9
Patriots	4–4	5.0 of 8	−1.0	8–9	8–9
Titans	5–6	5.6 of 11	−0.6	7–10	8–9
Saints	5–6	6.6 of 11	−1.6	7–10	8–9
Lions	4–5	3.3 of 9	+0.7	9–8	10–7
Packers	4–5	4.6 of 9	−0.6	8–9	9–8
Rams	3–4	2.7 of 7	+0.3	5–12	6–11
Colts	4–6–1	3.2 of 11	+1.3	4–12–1	6–10–1
Jets	4–6	3.5 of 10	+0.5	7–10	9–8
Jaguars	4–6	5.2 of 10	−1.2	9–8	11–6
Seahawks	4–6	5.3 of 10	−1.3	9–8	11–6
Falcons	5–8	6.1 of 13	−1.1	7–10	10–7
Panthers	3–5	2.4 of 8	+0.6	7–10	9–8
Texans	3–6–1	2.0 of 10	+1.5	3–13–1	6–10–1
Raiders	4–9	5.4 of 13	−1.4	6–11	11–6
Broncos	4–9	6.3 of 13	−2.3	5–12	10–7
Cardinals	2–6	2.9 of 8	−0.9	4–13	8–9
Browns	2–6	4.5 of 8	−2.5	7–10	11–6
Bears	1–7	2.4 of 8	−1.4	3–14	9–8