luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · final

Regression candidates for 2021

Due to fall back in 2021: the Steelers, the Chiefs and the Raiders, whose records ran furthest ahead of their coin flips in 2020. Due to bounce back: the Jaguars, the Falcons and the Panthers.

The measure is coin-flip wins: every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call re-rolled, everything else kept. A record far above it was built on bounces. It’s the best of our numbers at predicting the rest of a season: from weeks 1–9 to weeks 10–18 it correlates at 0.44 with the later win share, against 0.38 for the record itself (224 team-seasons). One-score records barely carry over at all: 0.12 from one season to the next. Methodology

Due to fall back

Won more than their coin flips, 2020.

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsGapReplay winsOne-score2021
Steelers 12–49.5 +2.59.67–2 9–7–1
Chiefs 14–211.5 +2.59.98–1 12–5
Raiders 8–86.0 +2.09.85–4 10–7
Dolphins 10–68.1 +1.96.73–4 9–8
Seahawks 12–410.3 +1.710.18–3 7–10
Bears 8–86.7 +1.34.86–5 6–11
Eagles 4–11–13.4 +1.14.93–5–1 9–8
Bills 13–312.1 +0.911.25–1 11–6

Due to bounce back

Won fewer than their coin flips, 2020.

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsGapReplay winsOne-score2021
Jaguars 1–153.3 −2.33.31–6 3–14
Falcons 4–125.9 −1.96.02–8 7–10
Panthers 5–116.8 −1.88.43–8 5–12
Texans 4–125.6 −1.66.62–8 4–13
49ers 6–107.5 −1.59.73–5 10–7
Saints 12–413.4 −1.410.45–3 9–8
Cardinals 8–89.3 −1.39.04–5 11–6
Jets 2–143.2 −1.23.42–4 4–13

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2019

2020 luck rankings · One-score records · Expected wins · Luckiest teams since 2019