2020 NFL season · final · regular season

Expected wins, 2020: what each team’s play was worth

The Chiefs won 14 games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.9, the biggest gap in the league, and points scored and allowed put them at 10.5. The 49ers are the other way round: 6 wins from play worth 9.7.

Team	Record	Replay wins	Coin-flip wins	Pythagorean	Betting line	Wins − replay
Chiefs	14–2	9.9	11.5	10.5	11.0	+4.1
Packers	13–3	11.5	12.1	10.9	10.2	+1.5
Bills	13–3	11.2	12.1	10.6	9.0	+1.8
Saints	12–4	10.4	13.4	11.2	10.2	+1.6
Seahawks	12–4	10.1	10.3	10.0	10.1	+1.9
Steelers	12–4	9.6	9.5	10.6	9.9	+2.4
Buccaneers	11–5	10.7	10.4	10.9	10.1	+0.3
Colts	11–5	10.6	11.5	10.0	10.0	+0.4
Ravens	11–5	10.2	11.8	11.8	10.9	+0.8
Titans	11–5	9.7	10.3	9.1	9.2	+1.3
Browns	11–5	8.8	10.6	7.7	9.0	+2.2
Rams	10–6	11.2	9.9	10.1	9.5	−1.2
Dolphins	10–6	6.7	8.1	9.7	7.7	+3.3
Raiders	8–8	9.8	6.0	7.1	7.5	−1.8
Cardinals	8–8	9.0	9.3	9.0	8.8	−1.0
Bears	8–8	4.8	6.7	8.1	7.0	+3.2
Vikings	7–9	8.5	7.8	7.1	8.0	−1.5
Chargers	7–9	8.1	6.8	7.0	8.3	−1.1
Patriots	7–9	6.7	7.1	7.2	8.1	+0.3
Washington	7–9	6.0	7.9	8.2	6.5	+1.0
49ers	6–10	9.7	7.5	7.7	8.1	−3.7
Cowboys	6–10	7.6	6.6	6.3	7.2	−1.6
Giants	6–10	6.8	6.0	5.8	5.7	−0.8
Panthers	5–11	8.4	6.8	6.7	6.4	−3.4
Lions	5–11	6.6	4.8	5.1	6.6	−1.6
Broncos	5–11	5.7	4.6	5.1	5.6	−0.7
Eagles	4–11–1	4.9	3.4	5.9	7.2	−0.4
Bengals	4–11–1	3.6	5.5	5.2	5.0	+0.9
Texans	4–12	6.6	5.6	6.2	7.3	−2.6
Falcons	4–12	6.0	5.9	7.6	7.0	−2.0
Jets	2–14	3.4	3.2	2.9	4.2	−1.4
Jaguars	1–15	3.3	3.3	3.9	4.7	−2.3

Replay wins: Summed over the season: how often the team wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams actually played.
Coin-flip wins: The same with only kicks, bounces, drops, conversions and calls re-rolled. The number that best predicts the rest of a season: correlation 0.437 against 0.378 for actual wins.
Pythagorean: From points scored and allowed: games × PF^2.37 / (PF^2.37 + PA^2.37).
Betting line: Summed win chances from each game’s closing spread: what the market expected before kickoff.

Luck-adjusted standings

Each division: record on the left, replay wins on the right. A line that falls from left to right belongs to a team whose record ran ahead of its play.

AFC East

BUF 13–3

MIA 10–6

NE 7–9

NYJ 2–14 11.26.76.73.4

RecordReplay wins

AFC North

PIT 12–4

CLE 11–5

BAL 11–5

CIN 4–11–1 9.68.810.23.6

RecordReplay wins

AFC South

TEN 11–5

IND 11–5

HOU 4–12

JAX 1–15 9.710.66.63.3

RecordReplay wins

AFC West

KC 14–2

LV 8–8

LAC 7–9

DEN 5–11 9.99.88.15.7

RecordReplay wins

NFC East

WAS 7–9

NYG 6–10

DAL 6–10

PHI 4–11–1 6.06.87.64.9

RecordReplay wins

NFC North

GB 13–3

CHI 8–8

MIN 7–9

DET 5–11 11.54.88.56.6

RecordReplay wins

NFC South

NO 12–4

TB 11–5

CAR 5–11

ATL 4–12 10.410.78.46.0

RecordReplay wins

NFC West

SEA 12–4

LA 10–6

ARI 8–8

SF 6–10 10.111.29.09.7

RecordReplay wins

Adjust the assumptions

Change how much of each kind of play counts as luck, and every team’s coin-flip wins are recomputed for the whole season.

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 25%Fumble bounces 75%Interceptions 0%Drops 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 100%Pre-snap flags 0%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

Tested on 19,000 lucky breaks: no momentum, so it’s off by default. Why

#	Team	Wins	Coin-flip wins	Luck
1	Saints	12	13.4	−1.4
2	Bills	13	12.1	+0.9
3	Packers	13	12.1	+0.9
4	Ravens	11	11.8	−0.8
5	Chiefs	14	11.6	+2.4
6	Colts	11	11.5	−0.5
7	Browns	11	10.6	+0.4
8	Buccaneers	11	10.3	+0.7
9	Seahawks	12	10.3	+1.7
10	Titans	11	10.3	+0.7
11	Rams	10	9.8	+0.2
12	Steelers	12	9.5	+2.5
13	Cardinals	8	9.3	−1.3
14	Dolphins	10	8.1	+1.9
15	Washington	7	7.9	−0.9
16	Vikings	7	7.8	−0.8
17	49ers	6	7.4	−1.4
18	Patriots	7	7.1	−0.1
19	Chargers	7	6.8	+0.2
20	Bears	8	6.7	+1.3
21	Panthers	5	6.7	−1.7
22	Cowboys	6	6.6	−0.6
23	Giants	6	6.0	0.0
24	Raiders	8	6.0	+2.0
25	Falcons	4	5.9	−1.9
26	Texans	4	5.5	−1.5
27	Bengals	4.5	5.4	−0.9
28	Lions	5	4.7	+0.3
29	Broncos	5	4.6	+0.4
30	Eagles	4.5	3.4	+1.1
31	Jaguars	1	3.3	−2.3
32	Jets	2	3.2	−1.2

2020 luck rankings · One-score games · Referee calls · Methodology