2020 NFL season · final · decided by 8 points or fewer

One-score games, 2020

The Bears went 6–5 in one-score games; replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.7 of those 11, the most close-game luck in the league. The Panthers went 3–8, from play worth 6.1 wins. If every one-score game had gone the other way, the Ravens would lead the league at 13–3.

Close-game records look like clutch and rarely last: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s one-score win rate carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record.

Team	One-score record	Replay wins in those	Close-game luck	Record	If they flipped
Chiefs	8–1	5.0 of 9	+3.0	14–2	7–9
Bills	5–1	3.6 of 6	+1.4	13–3	9–7
Steelers	7–2	5.5 of 9	+1.5	12–4	7–9
Browns	7–2	5.8 of 9	+1.2	11–5	6–10
Titans	7–2	5.3 of 9	+1.7	11–5	6–10
Seahawks	8–3	7.3 of 11	+0.7	12–4	7–9
Colts	5–2	4.6 of 7	+0.4	11–5	8–8
Packers	4–2	4.2 of 6	−0.2	13–3	11–5
Saints	5–3	4.5 of 8	+0.5	12–4	10–6
Vikings	6–4	5.8 of 10	+0.2	7–9	5–11
Raiders	5–4	6.4 of 9	−1.4	8–8	7–9
Bears	6–5	2.7 of 11	+3.3	8–8	7–9
Giants	5–5	4.8 of 10	+0.2	6–10	6–10
Rams	4–4	5.0 of 8	−1.0	10–6	10–6
Lions	4–4	4.6 of 8	−0.6	5–11	5–11
Cowboys	4–4	4.1 of 8	−0.1	6–10	6–10
Buccaneers	3–3	3.4 of 6	−0.4	11–5	11–5
Cardinals	4–5	4.6 of 9	−0.6	8–8	9–7
Dolphins	3–4	1.6 of 7	+1.4	10–6	11–5
Patriots	3–4	3.3 of 7	−0.3	7–9	8–8
Chargers	5–7	6.0 of 12	−1.0	7–9	9–7
Broncos	4–6	4.2 of 10	−0.2	5–11	7–9
Eagles	3–5–1	3.0 of 9	+0.5	4–11–1	6–9–1
Washington	3–5	2.8 of 8	+0.2	7–9	9–7
49ers	3–5	5.3 of 8	−2.3	6–10	8–8
Ravens	2–4	2.4 of 6	−0.4	11–5	13–3
Jets	2–4	1.8 of 6	+0.2	2–14	4–12
Bengals	2–5–1	2.2 of 8	+0.3	4–11–1	7–8–1
Panthers	3–8	6.1 of 11	−3.1	5–11	10–6
Falcons	2–8	4.0 of 10	−2.0	4–12	10–6
Texans	2–8	4.2 of 10	−2.2	4–12	10–6
Jaguars	1–6	2.0 of 7	−1.0	1–15	6–10