luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Jets at Cardinals, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Jets 31–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.1 points to the Jets.

An off day for the Jets: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jets were 56% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 6
Arizona Cardinals 31

November 10, 2024 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Jets −2

Luck index +10 Cardinals about even · −10 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 1, Cardinals win 9.

  1. 1 NYJ 20 ARI 14
  2. 2 NYJ 10 ARI 12
  3. 3 NYJ 14 ARI 17
  4. 4 NYJ 14 ARI 20
  5. 5 NYJ 7 ARI 15
  6. 6 NYJ 14 ARI 24
  7. 7 NYJ 7 ARI 21
  8. 8 NYJ 7 ARI 24
  9. 9 NYJ 3 ARI 23
  10. 10 NYJ 3 ARI 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jets

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

35 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.06 +0.00 worse by 0.06
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.46 +0.02 worse by 0.45
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.46 +0.07 better by 0.39
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.06 +0.14 better by 0.20

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 10% of them, Cardinals 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.3%
Jets by 9–162.2%
Jets by 1–87.8%
Level after regulation0.8%
Cardinals by 1–826.6%
Cardinals by 9–1629.2%
Cardinals by 17+33.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 22.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Shrader, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • S. Shrader, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. Ryland, 37 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:57 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% ARI NYJ: Field goal
2 Q1 3:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 22 flags in 4674 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +4% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:00 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +4% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:44 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% ARI NYJ: Field goal
5 Q2 11:41 S. Shrader made 45-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +4% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q2 10:20 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q2 8:02 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% ARI ARI: Touchdown
8 Q3 14:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Garrett Williams), 16 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 818 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% NYJ NYJ: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chuck Clark (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Cardinals 100%

Final margin
Cardinals by 25
Luck in points
2.2 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 22.8
Replay with same day's form
Jets 10% · Cardinals 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Jets · Cardinals

More from Week 10 2024