luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 11, 2024

Dolphins at Rams, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Rams 23–15, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 5.0 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Rams were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:52 left): the Dolphins converted 3rd & 13, worth 16 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 23
Los Angeles Rams 15

November 11, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −2.5

Luck index +72 Dolphins very lucky · −72 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 3, Rams win 7.

  1. 1 MIA 23 LA 7
  2. 2 MIA 14 LA 6
  3. 3 MIA 17 LA 14
  4. 4 MIA 14 LA 16
  5. 5 MIA 16 LA 20
  6. 6 MIA 10 LA 17
  7. 7 MIA 3 LA 13
  8. 8 MIA 0 LA 14
  9. 9 MIA 3 LA 22
  10. 10 MIA 6 LA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 28% of them, Rams 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+2.6%
Dolphins by 9–167.8%
Dolphins by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation3.9%
Rams by 1–825.6%
Rams by 9–1622.5%
Rams by 17+22.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 0.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Karty, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Karty, 55 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Karty, 57 yds missed · 65% expected
  • J. Karty, 53 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Sanders, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Karty, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Karty, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:52 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +16% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:09 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% MIA LA: Punt
3 Q2 7:47 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% LA MIA: Punt
4 Q2 5:53 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedD. Allen dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 16 catchable balls before this +10% MIA LA: Field goal
5 Q2 0:03 J. Karty made 55-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +9% LA LA: Missed field goal
6 Q3 11:45 The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% LA LA: Missed field goal
7 Q3 6:27 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q4 14:55 The Dolphins got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Bobby Brown), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 944 snaps before, position avg 1 per 528 +10% MIA MIA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Troy Reeder (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 54% · Rams 46%

Final margin
Dolphins by 8
Luck in points
7.8 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 28% · Rams 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Dolphins · Rams

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