luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Giants at Eagles, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 20–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 10.0 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:36 left): the Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 13 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

New York Giants 13
Philadelphia Eagles 20

January 5, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −3

Luck index +18 Eagles about even · −18 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Eagles win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 20 PHI 11
  2. 2 NYG 15 PHI 12
  3. 3 NYG 12 PHI 14
  4. 4 NYG 7 PHI 10
  5. 5 NYG 13 PHI 20
  6. 6 NYG 7 PHI 17
  7. 7 NYG 6 PHI 18
  8. 8 NYG 9 PHI 24
  9. 9 NYG 3 PHI 23
  10. 10 NYG 6 PHI 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 18% of them, Eagles 82%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+1.1%
Giants by 9–165.0%
Giants by 1–811.8%
Level after regulation4.8%
Eagles by 1–827.6%
Eagles by 9–1624.8%
Eagles by 17+24.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 19.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 39 yds missed · 83% expected
  • J. Elliott, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Gano, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Gano, 53 yds made · 59% expected
  • J. Elliott, 32 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:58 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 14:14 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedD. Goedert dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 195 catchable balls before this +7% NYG PHI: Missed field goal
3 Q2 5:30 The Eagles converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
4 Q3 6:42 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% NYG PHI: Punt
5 Q4 10:41 The Giants converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:47 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% NYG PHI: Punt
7 Q4 2:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Boogie Basham), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1075 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
8 Q4 0:36 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedThe Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Hurts (PHI QB), out, replaced by t.mckee · 5.6 pts
  • A.J. Brown (PHI WR), out · 1.7 pts
  • DeVonta Smith (PHI WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Darius Slay (PHI CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jalen Carter (PHI DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Zack Baun (PHI LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (PHI RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Theo Johnson (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dexter Lawrence (NYG NT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bobby Okereke (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Nubin (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Michael Schmitz (NYG C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Micah McFadden (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Stroman (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 6% · Eagles 94%

Final margin
Eagles by 7
Luck in points
12.0 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 19.0
Replay with same day's form
Giants 18% · Eagles 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Giants · Eagles

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