Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025
Dolphins at Jets, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Dolphins 32–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 10 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: drops alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
An off day for the Dolphins: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Jets were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:20 left): the Jets were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 11 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
Final
 Miami Dolphins | 20 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Jets about even · −1 Dolphins
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Dolphins win 0, Jets win 10.
- 1 MIA 23 NYJ 27
- 2 MIA 17 NYJ 26
- 3 MIA 17 NYJ 29
- 4 MIA 9 NYJ 23
- 5 MIA 10 NYJ 27
- 6 MIA 23 NYJ 44
- 7 MIA 14 NYJ 39
- 8 MIA 16 NYJ 44
- 9 MIA 0 NYJ 33
- 10 MIA 0 NYJ 39
Your call
Did the Jets earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Dolphins
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained | +0.13 | +0.10 | better by 0.03 |
| Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.07 | worse by 0.09 |
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.02 | better by 0.13 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.05 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Dolphins win 1% of them, Jets 99%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Dolphins by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 2.9% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 10.5% |
| Jets by 17+ | 85.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Sanders, 26 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Sanders, 28 yds made · 96% expected
- G. Joseph, 20 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Dolphins 4 for 32 yards, Jets 6 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:09 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.4 pts |
| Q1 2:51 | False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYJ +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:13 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MIA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 7:57 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Jets, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:33 | Illegal Forward Pass on the Jets (Ashtyn Davis), 5 yards | +1% MIA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Low Block on the Jets, 15 yards | +1% MIA +1.4 pts |
| Q3 11:37 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 7:29 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins, 12 yards | +1% NYJ +1.1 pts |
| Q3 0:36 | Illegal Shift on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% NYJ +1.7 pts |
| Q4 0:36 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% NYJ +1.6 pts |
Dolphins penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:15 | The Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +10% MIA | NYJ: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 8:47 | The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:16 | The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +6% NYJ | MIA: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 3:20 | The Jets were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +11% MIA | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 2:00 | The Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% MIA | MIA: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 1:55 | The Dolphins fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% NYJ | MIA: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 12:06 | The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +6% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:33 | The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sauce Gardner (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
- Morgan Moses (NYJ T), out · 0.9 pts
- Tyron Smith (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Olumuyiwa Fashanu (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Jalen Mills (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Chuck Clark (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 7.8 pts
- Kendall Fuller (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Kendall Lamm (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Anthony Walker (MIA LB), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Dolphins 0% · Jets 100%
- Final margin
- Jets by 12
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for the Dolphins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 15.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Dolphins 1% · Jets 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · 
Dolphins · 
Jets
More from Week 18 2024
- Browns at Ravens BAL 35–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers CIN 19–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots NE 23–16 · replay 27% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 44–38 · replay 11% for the winner
- Bears at Packers CHI 24–22 · replay 1% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 23–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 26–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers TB 27–19 · replay 87% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 20–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys WAS 23–19 · replay 76% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos DEN 38–0 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LAC 34–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams SEA 30–25 · replay 42% for the winner
- 49ers at Cardinals ARI 47–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions DET 31–9 · replay 93% for the winner