luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Raiders at Dolphins, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Raiders 34–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:27 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 9, worth 9 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 19
Miami Dolphins 34

November 17, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −8

Luck index +42 Dolphins lucky · −42 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 4, Dolphins win 6.

  1. 1 LV 23 MIA 7
  2. 2 LV 19 MIA 10
  3. 3 LV 13 MIA 7
  4. 4 LV 13 MIA 10
  5. 5 LV 17 MIA 20
  6. 6 LV 9 MIA 13
  7. 7 LV 2 MIA 9
  8. 8 LV 0 MIA 10
  9. 9 LV 8 MIA 21
  10. 10 LV 10 MIA 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 42% of them, Dolphins 58%, counting the 10% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+4.1%
Raiders by 9–1611.1%
Raiders by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation9.7%
Dolphins by 1–827.2%
Dolphins by 9–1615.6%
Dolphins by 17+7.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 11.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 31 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 46 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:50 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:19 The Dolphins converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +7% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q2 7:33 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% LV MIA: Field goal
4 Q2 3:29 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% LV LV: Field goal
5 Q3 4:21 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:27 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:37 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:30 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +8% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kendall Fuller (MIA CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Wilkins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Andre James (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Epps (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Luke Masterson (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 6% · Dolphins 94%

Final margin
Dolphins by 15
Luck in points
3.4 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 11.6
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 42% · Dolphins 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Raiders · Dolphins

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