luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2024 · November 14, 2024

Commanders at Eagles, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Commanders 26–18, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:01 left): the Commanders were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 26 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Washington Commanders 18
Philadelphia Eagles 26

November 14, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −4.5

Luck index +44 Eagles lucky · −44 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 4, Eagles win 6.

  1. 1 WAS 36 PHI 17
  2. 2 WAS 31 PHI 20
  3. 3 WAS 13 PHI 7
  4. 4 WAS 23 PHI 21
  5. 5 WAS 27 PHI 29
  6. 6 WAS 23 PHI 27
  7. 7 WAS 10 PHI 19
  8. 8 WAS 20 PHI 32
  9. 9 WAS 16 PHI 33
  10. 10 WAS 9 PHI 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 44% of them, Eagles 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+8.3%
Commanders by 9–1612.5%
Commanders by 1–820.1%
Level after regulation3.4%
Eagles by 1–826.4%
Eagles by 9–1614.7%
Eagles by 17+14.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Eagles by 8, without the luck Eagles by 11.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 44 yds missed · 82% expected
  • J. Elliott, 51 yds missed · 68% expected
  • J. Elliott, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 4 for 25 yards, Eagles 4 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:18 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +1% WAS +0.7 pts
Q1 2:26 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q2 6:33 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Dyami Brown), 10 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 1:05 Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Mike Sainristil), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 13:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Cooper DeJean), 14 yards +8% WAS +2.1 pts
Q3 11:07 Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.5 pts
Q3 11:03 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Sydney Brown), 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 3:29 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Moro Ojomo), 15 yards 0% WAS +1.2 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:59 J. Elliott missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +8% WAS PHI: Punt
2 Q2 0:47 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% PHI PHI: Field goal
3 Q2 0:28 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% WAS PHI: Field goal
4 Q2 0:05 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% PHI WAS: Field goal
5 Q3 13:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Cooper DeJean), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 372 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +8% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q4 15:00 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 8:39 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% PHI WAS: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 8:01 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +26% PHI WAS: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cornelius Lucas (WAS T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (WAS K), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 2% · Eagles 98%

Final margin
Eagles by 8
Luck in points
3.1 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 11.1
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 44% · Eagles 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Commanders · Eagles

More from Week 11 2024