luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 14, 2024

Commanders at Eagles, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Commanders 26–18, but the Commanders played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.0 points to the Eagles.

The Eagles won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:01 left): the Commanders were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 26 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Washington Commanders 18
Philadelphia Eagles 26

November 14, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −4.5

Luck index +62 Eagles very lucky · −62 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 6, Eagles win 4.

  1. 1 WAS 31 PHI 6
  2. 2 WAS 26 PHI 10
  3. 3 WAS 33 PHI 21
  4. 4 WAS 31 PHI 23
  5. 5 WAS 45 PHI 40
  6. 6 WAS 23 PHI 21
  7. 7 WAS 21 PHI 24
  8. 8 WAS 7 PHI 13
  9. 9 WAS 13 PHI 24
  10. 10 WAS 12 PHI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Eagles won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%.

30 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Commanders offenseEPA per play gained −0.19 +0.12 worse by 0.31
Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.11 worse by 0.03
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.16 worse by 0.01
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed −0.19 +0.07 better by 0.26

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 62% of them, Eagles 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+17.3%
Commanders by 9–1619.1%
Commanders by 1–826.0%
Level after regulation2.7%
Eagles by 1–819.1%
Eagles by 9–1610.7%
Eagles by 17+5.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 12.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 44 yds missed · 81% expected
  • J. Elliott, 51 yds missed · 69% expected
  • J. Elliott, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 45 yds made · 78% expected
  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:59 J. Elliott missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +8% WAS PHI: Punt
2 Q2 0:05 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% PHI WAS: Field goal
3 Q3 13:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Cooper DeJean), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 372 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +8% WAS WAS: Field goal
4 Q3 7:47 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +12% PHI PHI: Field goal
5 Q4 15:00 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:59 J. Bates dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 44 catchable balls before this +8% PHI WAS: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 8:01 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +26% PHI WAS: Turnover
8 Q4 5:05 The Eagles converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cornelius Lucas (WAS T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Seibert (WAS K), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 1% · Eagles 99%

Final margin
Eagles by 8
Luck in points
4.9 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 12.9
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 62% · Eagles 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Commanders · Eagles

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