luckadjusted

Week 6 2024 · October 13, 2024

Texans at Patriots, Week 6 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Patriots 41–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 10 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.2 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Texans were 68% favorites.

Final

Houston Texans 41
New England Patriots 21

October 13, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Texans −6.5

Luck index +1 Texans about even · −1 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 10, Patriots win 0.

  1. 1 HOU 52 NE 9
  2. 2 HOU 43 NE 9
  3. 3 HOU 48 NE 18
  4. 4 HOU 42 NE 16
  5. 5 HOU 26 NE 3
  6. 6 HOU 20 NE 0
  7. 7 HOU 29 NE 14
  8. 8 HOU 26 NE 14
  9. 9 HOU 31 NE 23
  10. 10 HOU 17 NE 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 99% of them, Patriots 1%. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+82.7%
Texans by 9–1610.6%
Texans by 1–85.0%
Level after regulation0.4%
Patriots by 1–80.9%
Patriots by 9–160.4%
Patriots by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 18.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 40 yds missed · 88% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 46 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:31 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Marte Mapu), 4 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 514 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:46 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Marcus Jones), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 825 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +4% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:53 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% HOU NE: Punt
6 Q2 14:33 K. Fairbairn missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +5% NE HOU: Turnover
7 Q2 2:38 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q3 14:18 The Patriots fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% HOU NE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • K.J. Osborn (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kamari Lassiter (HOU CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kurt Hinish (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 100% · Patriots 0%

Final margin
Texans by 20
Luck in points
1.8 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 18.2
Replay with same day's form
Texans 99% · Patriots 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2024 games · Texans · Patriots

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