luckadjusted

Week 2 2024 · September 16, 2024

Falcons at Eagles, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Eagles 22–21, but the Eagles played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 2.8 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:27 left): the Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 46 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 22
Philadelphia Eagles 21

September 16, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −5.5

Luck index +65 Falcons very lucky · −65 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Eagles win 7.

  1. 1 ATL 26 PHI 10
  2. 2 ATL 34 PHI 28
  3. 3 ATL 34 PHI 31
  4. 4 ATL 21 PHI 23
  5. 5 ATL 10 PHI 13
  6. 6 ATL 35 PHI 41
  7. 7 ATL 13 PHI 22
  8. 8 ATL 22 PHI 35
  9. 9 ATL 10 PHI 27
  10. 10 ATL 15 PHI 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 35% of them, Eagles 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+3.5%
Falcons by 9–1610.0%
Falcons by 1–820.1%
Level after regulation2.2%
Eagles by 1–829.1%
Eagles by 9–1619.8%
Eagles by 17+15.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 3.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • Y. Koo, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • Y. Koo, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Elliott, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Elliott, 28 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 8:43 The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedDelay of Game on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 3828 snaps before, position avg 1 per 658 +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:43 The Eagles converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:53 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +11% PHI ATL: Field goal
4 Q3 2:12 The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +16% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q3 0:47 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% ATL ATL: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 10:31 The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:42 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +13% PHI ATL: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:27 The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +46% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • A.J. Brown (PHI WR), out · 1.7 pts
  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 41% · Eagles 59%

Final margin
Falcons by 1
Luck in points
4.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 35% · Eagles 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Falcons · Eagles

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