Week 2 2024 · September 16, 2024
Falcons at Eagles, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Eagles 22–21, but the replays lean toward the Eagles: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:27 left): the Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 40 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 22 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Falcons very lucky · −67 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Eagles win 7.
- 1 ATL 30 PHI 13
- 2 ATL 19 PHI 10
- 3 ATL 16 PHI 14
- 4 ATL 24 PHI 26
- 5 ATL 27 PHI 31
- 6 ATL 10 PHI 17
- 7 ATL 10 PHI 21
- 8 ATL 14 PHI 27
- 9 ATL 7 PHI 24
- 10 ATL 10 PHI 34
Your call
Did the Falcons earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 33% of them, Eagles 67%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 3.8% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 10.0% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 19.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 27.9% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 20.4% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 16.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 39 yds made · 90% expected
- Y. Koo, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- Y. Koo, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Elliott, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Elliott, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Falcons 3 for 40 yards, Eagles 9 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:19 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% ATL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 8:43 | Delay of Game on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 6:10 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards | +1% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 5:15 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons (JD Bertrand), 10 yards | +2% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:42 | Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Nakobe Dean), 5 yards | +4% ATL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:10 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Ray-Ray McCloud), 15 yards | +5% PHI +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Face Mask on the Eagles (Brandon Graham), 3 yards | +1% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 4:31 | Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% ATL +0.2 pts |
| Q3 0:47 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +11% ATL +2.0 pts |
| Q4 8:52 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Johnny Wilson), 10 yards | +5% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:38 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +2% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:38 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Falcons (Drake London), 15 yards | +6% PHI +1.4 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:43 | The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedDelay of Game on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 3828 snaps before, position avg 1 per 658 | +7% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 6:43 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +10% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 10:53 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +9% PHI | ATL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 2:12 | The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +14% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 0:47 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% ATL | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 10:31 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +7% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 5:42 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +13% PHI | ATL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:27 | The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +40% ATL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- A.J. Brown (PHI WR), out · 1.7 pts
- James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 44% · Eagles 56%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 1
- Luck in points
- 3.5 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 33% · Eagles 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · 
Falcons · 
Eagles
More from Week 2 2024
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars CLE 18–13 · replay 16% for the winner
- Colts at Packers GB 16–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Chargers at Panthers LAC 26–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Raiders at Ravens LV 26–23 · replay 15% for the winner
- Saints at Cowboys NO 44–19 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Commanders WAS 21–18 · replay 89% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 24–17 · replay 55% for the winner
- Seahawks at Patriots SEA 23–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- 49ers at Vikings MIN 23–17 · replay 49% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Lions TB 20–16 · replay 16% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals ARI 41–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Bengals at Chiefs KC 26–25 · replay 60% for the winner
- Steelers at Broncos PIT 13–6 · replay 66% for the winner
- Bears at Texans HOU 19–13 · replay 48% for the winner