luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2024 · September 15, 2024

Jets at Titans, Week 2 2024: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Titans 24–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jets were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:46 left): Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 24
Tennessee Titans 17

September 15, 2024 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Jets −3.5

Luck index +45 Jets lucky · −45 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 5, Titans win 5.

  1. 1 NYJ 41 TEN 20
  2. 2 NYJ 24 TEN 10
  3. 3 NYJ 29 TEN 20
  4. 4 NYJ 21 TEN 15
  5. 5 NYJ 20 TEN 17
  6. 6 NYJ 15 TEN 17
  7. 7 NYJ 16 TEN 20
  8. 8 NYJ 19 TEN 26
  9. 9 NYJ 7 TEN 20
  10. 10 NYJ 0 TEN 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 55% of them, Titans 45%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+10.7%
Jets by 9–1616.0%
Jets by 1–822.7%
Level after regulation6.2%
Titans by 1–822.7%
Titans by 9–1613.5%
Titans by 17+8.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 points to the Titans: the final margin was Jets by 7, without the luck Jets by 10. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 7 for 70 yards, Titans 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:44 Intentional Grounding on the Jets (Aaron Rodgers), 10 yards +3% TEN +0.9 pts
Q1 9:08 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Tony Adams), 5 yards +1% TEN +0.3 pts
Q1 7:03 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Takkarist McKinley), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.1 pts
Q1 1:03 Defensive Delay of Game on the Titans (L'Jarius Sneed), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 14:51 Horse Collar Tackle on the Jets (Chuck Clark), 15 yards +4% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 14:28 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q2 12:28 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Jermaine Johnson II), 15 yards +5% TEN +2.0 pts
Q2 1:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Chuck Clark), 15 yards +6% TEN +1.4 pts
Q3 14:12 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 13:46 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +10% NYJ +2.5 pts
Q3 11:23 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +1% NYJ +1.3 pts
Q3 9:53 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.7 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:45 The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Chuck Clark), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 4694 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +6% TEN TEN: Field goal
3 Q3 13:46 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 4226 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +10% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:19 Blocked punt by the JetsSpecial teams +8% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
5 Q3 1:54 The Jets converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q4 8:51 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% NYJ TEN: Punt
7 Q4 2:44 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:29 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% NYJ TEN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • D.J. Reed (NYJ CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 98% · Titans 2%

Final margin
Jets by 7
Luck in points
3.0 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Jets 55% · Titans 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2024 games · Jets · Titans

More from Week 2 2024