Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Ravens at Bengals, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Ravens 41–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 8 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Ravens.
Before kickoff the Bengals were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:12 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 16, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 21 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Bengals about even · −17 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 2, Bengals win 8.
- 1 BAL 21 CIN 10
- 2 BAL 17 CIN 14
- 3 BAL 13 CIN 16
- 4 BAL 9 CIN 15
- 5 BAL 21 CIN 30
- 6 BAL 10 CIN 21
- 7 BAL 20 CIN 34
- 8 BAL 23 CIN 40
- 9 BAL 10 CIN 31
- 10 BAL 10 CIN 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 17% of them, Bengals 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 20.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 1.4% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 10.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 27.0% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 31.9% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Bengals by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 14.2.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 30 yds made · 97% expected
- E. McPherson, 36 yds made · 93% expected
- E. McPherson, 50 yds missed · 77% expected
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:47 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:00 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +7% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:55 | Illegal Contact on the Ravens, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +5% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:24 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +6% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:14 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +5% BAL | CIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 0:30 | The Bengals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +9% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 1:12 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +10% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:36 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Daryl Worley), 2 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1475 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +6% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Riley Reiff (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Fred Johnson (CIN T), out · 0.4 pts
- D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by j.johnson · 5.6 pts
- Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
- Chris Westry (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Justin Houston (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Ben Powers (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
- Devin Duvernay (BAL WR), out · 0.2 pts
- Tyre Phillips (BAL G), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 0% · Bengals 100%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 20
- Luck in points
- 5.8 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 14.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 17% · Bengals 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · 
Ravens · 
Bengals
More from Week 16 2021
- 49ers at Titans TEN 20–17 · replay 33% for the winner
- Browns at Packers GB 24–22 · replay 48% for the winner
- Colts at Cardinals IND 22–16 · replay 61% for the winner
- Bills at Patriots BUF 33–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Lions at Falcons ATL 20–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- Jaguars at Jets NYJ 26–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Chargers at Texans HOU 41–29 · replay 24% for the winner
- Rams at Vikings LA 30–23 · replay 85% for the winner
- Giants at Eagles PHI 34–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 32–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bears at Seahawks CHI 25–24 · replay 37% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders LV 17–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Steelers at Chiefs KC 36–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Washington at Cowboys DAL 56–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Dolphins at Saints MIA 20–3 · replay 70% for the winner