luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2020 · December 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Ravens, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Jaguars 40–14, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 83% favorites.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 14
Baltimore Ravens 40

December 20, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −13

Luck index +24 Ravens about even · −24 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 JAX 29 BAL 17
  2. 2 JAX 27 BAL 24
  3. 3 JAX 10 BAL 13
  4. 4 JAX 19 BAL 24
  5. 5 JAX 27 BAL 34
  6. 6 JAX 10 BAL 20
  7. 7 JAX 10 BAL 23
  8. 8 JAX 3 BAL 20
  9. 9 JAX 7 BAL 27
  10. 10 JAX 12 BAL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 24% of them, Ravens 76%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+2.9%
Jaguars by 9–165.9%
Jaguars by 1–814.2%
Level after regulation4.7%
Ravens by 1–824.8%
Ravens by 9–1621.6%
Ravens by 17+26.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 26, without the luck Ravens by 18.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Tucker, 57 yds missed · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 7 for 67 yards, Ravens 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:55 Illegal Blindside Block on the Jaguars, 1 yard 0% BAL +0.1 pts
Q2 9:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 36 yards +3% BAL +3.4 pts
Q2 0:08 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards 0% BAL +0.6 pts
Q3 11:49 False Start on the Jaguars (Dare Ogunbowale), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.8 pts
Q3 0:54 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.7 pts
Q4 9:14 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Laviska Shenault Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% BAL +2.9 pts
Q4 8:10 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Jaguars, 5 yards 0% BAL +0.5 pts
Q4 5:10 False Start on the Ravens (Eric Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.7 pts
Q4 5:04 Illegal Blindside Block on the Ravens, 15 yards 0% JAX +1.4 pts
Q4 3:20 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Jaylon Ferguson), 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% JAX +4.5 pts
Q4 1:44 Illegal Formation on the Ravens (Brandon Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:28 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% BAL BAL: Turnover
2 Q1 9:30 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +3% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:49 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% JAX JAX: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 1:55 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +2% BAL JAX: Punt
5 Q1 0:37 The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:54 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +2% JAX JAX: Punt
7 Q2 9:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 36 yardsJudgment calls +3% BAL BAL: Field goal
8 Q2 3:23 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% BAL JAX: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out · 1.5 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Boyle (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Luq Barcoo (JAX CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sidney Jones (JAX CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Cooke (JAX P), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 1% · Ravens 99%

Final margin
Ravens by 26
Luck in points
7.9 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 18.1
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 24% · Ravens 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · Jaguars · Ravens

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