luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2020 NFL season · December 17, 2020–December 21

Week 15 2020: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Chargers beat the Raiders 30–27 in a game they win 32% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 15 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Jets 23–20 @ Rams 10% 19% Lucky
Bengals 27–17 vs Steelers 14% 85% Deserved
Cowboys 41–33 vs 49ers 38% 16% Lucky
Chargers 30–27 @ Raiders 40% 32% Lucky
Bears 33–27 @ Vikings 43% 39% Lucky
Dolphins 22–12 vs Patriots 46% 76% Deserved

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Cowboys W 41–33 vs 49ers 16% +84
2 Jets W 23–20 @ Rams 19% +81
3 Chargers W 30–27 @ Raiders 32% +68
4 Bears W 33–27 @ Vikings 39% +61
5 Chiefs W 32–29 @ Saints 68% +32
6 Ravens W 40–14 vs Jaguars 76% +24
7 Buccaneers W 31–27 @ Falcons 76% +24
8 Dolphins W 22–12 vs Patriots 76% +24
9 Browns W 20–6 @ Giants 77% +23
10 Packers W 24–16 vs Panthers 82% +18
11 Titans W 46–25 vs Lions 83% +17
12 Bengals W 27–17 vs Steelers 85% +15
13 Colts W 27–20 vs Texans 85% +15
14 Cardinals W 33–26 vs Eagles 85% +15
15 Seahawks W 20–15 @ Washington 90% +10
16 Bills W 48–19 @ Broncos 95% +5
17 Broncos L 19–48 vs Bills 5% −5
18 Washington L 15–20 vs Seahawks 10% −10
19 Eagles L 26–33 @ Cardinals 15% −15
20 Texans L 20–27 @ Colts 15% −15
21 Steelers L 17–27 @ Bengals 15% −15
22 Lions L 25–46 @ Titans 17% −17
23 Panthers L 16–24 @ Packers 18% −18
24 Giants L 6–20 vs Browns 23% −23
25 Patriots L 12–22 @ Dolphins 24% −24
26 Falcons L 27–31 vs Buccaneers 24% −24
27 Jaguars L 14–40 @ Ravens 24% −24
28 Saints L 29–32 vs Chiefs 32% −32
29 Vikings L 27–33 vs Bears 61% −61
30 Raiders L 27–30 vs Chargers 68% −68
31 Rams L 20–23 vs Jets 81% −81
32 49ers L 33–41 @ Cowboys 84% −84