luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Texans, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 30–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:37 left): S. Hauschka missed a 24-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 14
Houston Texans 30

October 11, 2020 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −6.5

Luck index +8 Texans about even · −8 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Texans win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 27 HOU 21
  2. 2 JAX 24 HOU 26
  3. 3 JAX 37 HOU 41
  4. 4 JAX 13 HOU 20
  5. 5 JAX 3 HOU 13
  6. 6 JAX 17 HOU 30
  7. 7 JAX 20 HOU 37
  8. 8 JAX 3 HOU 23
  9. 9 JAX 6 HOU 31
  10. 10 JAX 3 HOU 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 8% of them, Texans 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.5%
Jaguars by 9–161.5%
Jaguars by 1–85.7%
Level after regulation0.5%
Texans by 1–816.2%
Texans by 9–1622.3%
Texans by 17+53.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.3 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 16, without the luck Texans by 3.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 24 yds missed · 98% expected
  • S. Hauschka, 49 yds missed · 73% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 46 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 4 for 35 yards, Texans 5 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:42 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 9:40 False Start on the Jaguars (James O'Shaughnessy), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 8:09 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 5 yards +4% JAX +1.3 pts
Q2 0:10 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +4% HOU +0.4 pts
Q3 13:07 Disqualification on the Jaguars (Josh Jones), 15 yards +4% HOU +1.5 pts
Q3 7:59 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% JAX +1.2 pts
Q3 2:52 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q4 6:27 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 0:37 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:12 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:39 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:43 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
4 Q2 0:43 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% HOU JAX: Missed field goal
5 Q2 0:37 S. Hauschka missed a 24-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +16% HOU JAX: Missed field goal
6 Q2 0:04 S. Hauschka missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 7 of 12 from 45+ before +7% HOU JAX: Punt
7 Q3 3:21 The Jaguars fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:23 The Jaguars converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Gareon Conley (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Akins (HOU TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU ILB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Myles Jack (JAX LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dede Westbrook (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (JAX DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 24% · Texans 76%

Final margin
Texans by 16
Luck in points
12.3 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 8% · Texans 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Jaguars · Texans

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