luckadjusted

Wild Card 2020 · January 9, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Bills, Wild Card 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Colts 27–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bills win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 6.5 points to the Bills.

Before kickoff the Bills were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:37 left): Defensive Offside on the Colts (Kemoko Turay), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 24
Buffalo Bills 27

January 9, 2021 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −7

Luck index +57 Bills lucky · −57 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 6, Bills win 4.

  1. 1 IND 40 BUF 17
  2. 2 IND 33 BUF 17
  3. 3 IND 31 BUF 20
  4. 4 IND 38 BUF 30
  5. 5 IND 30 BUF 24
  6. 6 IND 24 BUF 21
  7. 7 IND 26 BUF 28
  8. 8 IND 21 BUF 25
  9. 9 IND 21 BUF 31
  10. 10 IND 23 BUF 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 57% of them, Bills 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+13.1%
Colts by 9–1617.2%
Colts by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation3.2%
Bills by 1–819.7%
Bills by 9–1612.9%
Bills by 17+7.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 1.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • T. Bass, 46 yds made · 75% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 33 yds missed · 93% expected
  • T. Bass, 54 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:29 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +11% IND IND: Field goal
2 Q2 2:00 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +7% BUF IND: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 1:53 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% BUF IND: End of half
4 Q2 0:37 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Kemoko Turay), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 197 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +21% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q3 11:51 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% IND BUF: Field goal
6 Q4 0:55 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% BUF IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:50 The Colts converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +18% IND IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:04 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Anthony Castonzo (IND T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Rock Ya-Sin (IND CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 53% · Bills 47%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
4.7 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Colts 57% · Bills 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2020 games · Colts · Bills

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