luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2020 · January 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Titans, Wild Card 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Titans 20–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:19 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 24, worth 14 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 20
Tennessee Titans 13

January 10, 2021 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3.5

Luck index +21 Ravens about even · −21 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 8, Titans win 2.

  1. 1 BAL 30 TEN 3
  2. 2 BAL 34 TEN 14
  3. 3 BAL 34 TEN 20
  4. 4 BAL 24 TEN 13
  5. 5 BAL 19 TEN 10
  6. 6 BAL 27 TEN 20
  7. 7 BAL 20 TEN 16
  8. 8 BAL 12 TEN 10
  9. 9 BAL 20 TEN 23
  10. 10 BAL 13 TEN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 79% of them, Titans 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+28.2%
Ravens by 9–1620.9%
Ravens by 1–829.1%
Level after regulation2.1%
Titans by 1–811.9%
Titans by 9–165.8%
Titans by 17+1.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Titans: the final margin was Ravens by 7, without the luck Ravens by 10.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Gostkowski, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Tucker, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 52 yds missed · 72% expected
  • J. Tucker, 51 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 5 for 60 yards, Titans 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:28 False Start on the Titans (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 9:16 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens (Jimmy Smith), 5 yards +1% TEN +0.4 pts
Q2 0:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Dez Bryant), 15 yards +6% TEN +1.3 pts
Q2 0:12 Defensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yards +10% BAL 0.0 pts
Q3 3:11 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Derek Wolfe), 15 yards +8% TEN +1.7 pts
Q4 4:28 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Willie Snead), 10 yards +9% TEN +1.5 pts
Q4 2:00 Taunting on the Ravens, 15 yards +2% TEN +1.4 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:45 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:58 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% BAL BAL: End of half
3 Q2 0:19 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 243rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Dez Bryant), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 129 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +14% TEN BAL: End of half
4 Q2 0:12 Defensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yardsJudgment calls +10% BAL BAL: End of half
5 Q3 3:11 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Derek Wolfe), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1213 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +8% TEN TEN: Field goal
6 Q4 12:16 J. Tucker missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 19 of 21 from 45+ before +11% TEN BAL: Field goal
7 Q4 10:10 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% BAL TEN: Punt
8 Q4 4:28 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Willie Snead), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1301 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +9% TEN TEN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Breon Borders (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ty Sambrailo (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 99% · Titans 1%

Final margin
Ravens by 7
Luck in points
3.6 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 79% · Titans 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2020 games · Ravens · Titans

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