luckadjusted

Wild Card 2023 · January 14, 2024

Rams at Lions, Wild Card 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Rams 24–23, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Lions were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:13 left): B. Maher made 29-yard field goal, worth 14 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 23
Detroit Lions 24

January 14, 2024 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −3.5

Luck index +61 Lions very lucky · −61 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 6, Lions win 4.

  1. 1 LA 24 DET 0
  2. 2 LA 23 DET 7
  3. 3 LA 19 DET 9
  4. 4 LA 20 DET 13
  5. 5 LA 20 DET 16
  6. 6 LA 19 DET 17
  7. 7 LA 0 DET 3
  8. 8 LA 6 DET 13
  9. 9 LA 16 DET 28
  10. 10 LA 9 DET 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 61% of them, Lions 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+12.3%
Rams by 9–1616.9%
Rams by 1–829.6%
Level after regulation2.9%
Lions by 1–820.2%
Lions by 9–1613.0%
Lions by 17+5.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 0.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Badgley, 54 yds made · 59% expected
  • B. Maher, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Maher, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:32 The Rams converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +13% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q2 3:27 The Lions fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DET DET: Punt
3 Q2 2:00 The Lions converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% DET DET: Punt
4 Q3 12:39 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% DET DET: Field goal
5 Q4 8:17 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% DET LA: Field goal
6 Q4 8:13 B. Maher made 29-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +14% DET LA: Punt
7 Q4 7:30 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% LA DET: Punt
8 Q4 4:24 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yardsJudgment calls +10% DET DET: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jerry Jacobs (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Ward (LA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 57% · Lions 43%

Final margin
Lions by 1
Luck in points
2.0 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Rams 61% · Lions 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2023 games · Rams · Lions

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