luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2023 · January 14, 2024

Rams at Lions, Wild Card 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Rams 24–23, but the replays lean toward the Rams: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Lions were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:24 left): Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 23
Detroit Lions 24

January 14, 2024 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −3.5

Luck index +64 Lions very lucky · −64 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 6, Lions win 4.

  1. 1 LA 30 DET 7
  2. 2 LA 24 DET 10
  3. 3 LA 20 DET 10
  4. 4 LA 20 DET 13
  5. 5 LA 22 DET 17
  6. 6 LA 16 DET 13
  7. 7 LA 10 DET 12
  8. 8 LA 15 DET 21
  9. 9 LA 14 DET 23
  10. 10 LA 10 DET 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 64% of them, Lions 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+13.5%
Rams by 9–1621.0%
Rams by 1–829.7%
Level after regulation2.3%
Lions by 1–820.6%
Lions by 9–169.7%
Lions by 17+3.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 1, without the luck Rams by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Badgley, 54 yds made · 60% expected
  • B. Maher, 27 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Maher, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 4 for 36 yards, Lions 5 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Brian Branch), 9 yards +3% LA +0.6 pts
Q1 5:14 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Kerby Joseph), 6 yards +2% LA +0.8 pts
Q1 3:48 Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Nick Hampton), 15 yards +4% DET +1.8 pts
Q1 2:42 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% LA +1.4 pts
Q2 9:41 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Rams (Aaron Donald), 6 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q2 6:26 Defensive Holding on the Lions (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 5 yards 0% LA +0.1 pts
Q2 1:06 Illegal Blindside Block on the Rams, 5 yards +1% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 1:06 False Start on the Lions, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.2 pts
Q4 4:24 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +10% DET +1.4 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:58 The Lions converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q2 3:27 The Lions fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DET DET: Punt
3 Q2 2:00 The Lions converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% DET DET: Punt
4 Q3 8:45 M. Badgley made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 13 of 29 from 45+ before +6% DET DET: Punt
5 Q4 13:47 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% LA LA: Field goal
6 Q4 8:17 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% DET LA: Field goal
7 Q4 7:30 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% LA DET: Punt
8 Q4 4:24 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yardsJudgment calls +10% DET DET: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jerry Jacobs (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Ward (LA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 59% · Lions 41%

Final margin
Lions by 1
Luck in points
2.2 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Rams 64% · Lions 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2023 games · Rams · Lions

More from Wild Card 2023