luckadjusted

Divisional round 2023 · January 21, 2024

Buccaneers at Lions, Divisional round 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Buccaneers 31–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:16 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 10, worth 14 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
Detroit Lions 31

January 21, 2024 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −6

Luck index +27 Lions lucky · −27 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Lions win 7.

  1. 1 TB 38 DET 21
  2. 2 TB 27 DET 19
  3. 3 TB 23 DET 20
  4. 4 TB 22 DET 24
  5. 5 TB 21 DET 25
  6. 6 TB 28 DET 36
  7. 7 TB 28 DET 40
  8. 8 TB 31 DET 46
  9. 9 TB 21 DET 41
  10. 10 TB 10 DET 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 27% of them, Lions 73%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+4.5%
Buccaneers by 9–167.1%
Buccaneers by 1–814.3%
Level after regulation3.0%
Lions by 1–825.3%
Lions by 9–1619.8%
Lions by 17+26.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 4.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 50 yds missed · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:21 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% DET TB: Field goal
2 Q2 15:00 The Lions converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q2 2:29 C. McLaughlin missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 39 of 53 from 45+ before +9% DET TB: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:31 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +13% DET TB: Punt
5 Q3 10:18 Chop Block on the Lions (David Montgomery), 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 3167 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 +13% TB TB: Punt
6 Q3 6:57 The Lions converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:51 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +12% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:16 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +14% TB TB: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 25% · Lions 75%

Final margin
Lions by 8
Luck in points
3.2 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 27% · Lions 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2023 games · Buccaneers · Lions

More from Divisional round 2023