luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Cleveland Browns, 2026: game by game

The Browns went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.

Every game

How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Jaguars L 10–34 2% −2
Week 2 @ Buccaneers W 23–19 43% +57

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Browns’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+2.5+1.25
Injuries−0.4−0.19
3rd & 4th downs−1.8−0.91
Kicks−2.3−1.17
Fumble bounces−3.1−1.57