2026 season · in progress

Cleveland Browns, 2026: game by game

The Browns went 5–4 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.6 wins. Luck added 1.4: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–2.

Every game

How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Jaguars	L 10–34	1%	−1
Week 2	@ Buccaneers	W 23–19	59%	+41
Week 3	vs Panthers	W 21–18	8%	+92
Week 4	vs Steelers	W 27–24	39%	+61
Week 5	@ Jets	L 12–17	15%	−15
Week 6	vs Ravens	W 13–10	76%	+24
Week 7	@ Titans	W 27–24	84%	+16
Week 8	@ Steelers	L 6–27	23%	−23
Week 9	@ Saints	L 22–23	51%	−51

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −1 @ JAX

Wk 2 +41 @ TB

Wk 3 +92 vs CAR

Wk 4 +61 vs PIT

Wk 5 −15 @ NYJ

Wk 6 +24 vs BAL

Wk 7 +16 @ TEN

Wk 8 −23 @ PIT

Wk 9 −51 @ NO

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Browns win chance
Week 10 · Nov 15	vs Texans	Texans by 1.7	45%
Week 12 · Nov 29	vs Raiders	Browns by 1.2	54%
Week 13 · Dec 6	vs Bengals	Bengals by 4.3	37%
Week 14 · Dec 13	vs Falcons	Browns by 1.0	53%
Week 15 · Dec 20	at Giants	Giants by 4.4	37%
Week 16 · Dec 27	at Ravens	Ravens by 7.1	30%
Week 17 · Jan 3	vs Colts	Browns by 3.2	60%
Week 18 · Jan 10	at Bengals	Bengals by 8.9	25%

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.36	+6.1
Injuries	+0.21	+7.3
Judgment calls	+0.12	−1.4
Drops	+0.06	−1.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.04	−2.9
Fumble bounces	−0.23	−12.4