luckadjusted

Week 4 2021 · October 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Cowboys, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Panthers 36–28 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.5 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:57 left): the Cowboys converted 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Carolina Panthers 28
Dallas Cowboys 36

October 3, 2021 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −4.5

Luck index +22 Cowboys about even · −22 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Cowboys win 8.

  1. 1 CAR 36 DAL 24
  2. 2 CAR 34 DAL 31
  3. 3 CAR 19 DAL 21
  4. 4 CAR 20 DAL 24
  5. 5 CAR 10 DAL 17
  6. 6 CAR 27 DAL 37
  7. 7 CAR 23 DAL 36
  8. 8 CAR 21 DAL 37
  9. 9 CAR 14 DAL 34
  10. 10 CAR 24 DAL 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 22% of them, Cowboys 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+2.8%
Panthers by 9–166.5%
Panthers by 1–811.6%
Level after regulation2.5%
Cowboys by 1–824.7%
Cowboys by 9–1621.1%
Cowboys by 17+30.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 8.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 37 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:45 The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:23 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +6% CAR DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:57 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +12% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:16 The Panthers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:49 The Panthers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:31 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +6% CAR DAL: Punt
7 Q3 12:54 Z. Gonzalez missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 13 of 21 from 45+ before +8% DAL CAR: Punt
8 Q3 10:01 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% DAL CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Keanu Neal (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Carlos Watkins (DAL DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Neville Gallimore (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 4% · Cowboys 96%

Final margin
Cowboys by 8
Luck in points
0.2 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 22% · Cowboys 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · Panthers · Cowboys

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