Week 4 2021 · October 3, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Panthers at Cowboys, Week 4 2021: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Panthers 36–28, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:54 left): Z. Gonzalez missed a 54-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Carolina Panthers | 28 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Cowboys about even · −23 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Cowboys win 8.
- 1 CAR 33 DAL 20
- 2 CAR 27 DAL 23
- 3 CAR 40 DAL 42
- 4 CAR 30 DAL 34
- 5 CAR 30 DAL 37
- 6 CAR 24 DAL 33
- 7 CAR 34 DAL 47
- 8 CAR 6 DAL 23
- 9 CAR 20 DAL 41
- 10 CAR 20 DAL 49
Your call
Did the Cowboys earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Panthers win 23% of them, Cowboys 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 17+ | 2.9% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 12.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 24.3% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 21.7% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 29.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Z. Gonzalez, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 37 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Panthers 6 for 32 yards, Cowboys 7 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:15 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.5 pts |
| Q1 11:45 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% CAR +1.3 pts |
| Q1 2:24 | False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.5 pts |
| Q2 14:09 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Panthers, 1 yard · pre-snap | +2% DAL 0.0 pts |
| Q2 14:09 | False Start on the Panthers (Colin Thompson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 6 yards | +1% DAL +0.3 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:22 | False Start on the Cowboys (Jeremy Sprinkle), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:02 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Damontae Kazee), 15 yards | 0% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:58 | False Start on the Cowboys (Nahshon Wright), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.2 pts |
| Q4 5:00 | Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:42 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys (Nahshon Wright), 5 yards | 0% CAR +0.3 pts |
| Q4 3:02 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.5 pts |
Panthers penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:23 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +5% CAR | DAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 0:57 | The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +5% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 13:16 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +8% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 11:49 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +7% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 4:31 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +5% CAR | DAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 3:07 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +5% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 12:58 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% DAL | CAR: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q3 12:54 | Z. Gonzalez missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 13 of 21 from 45+ before | +9% DAL | CAR: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Brandon Knight (DAL T), out · 0.6 pts
- Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
- Keanu Neal (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Carlos Watkins (DAL DE), out · 0.2 pts
- Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Neville Gallimore (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out · 0.6 pts
- Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR DE), out · 0.3 pts
- Juston Burris (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Juston Burris (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 5% · Cowboys 95%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 8
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 7.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 23% · Cowboys 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2021 games · 
Panthers · 
Cowboys
More from Week 4 2021
- Jaguars at Bengals CIN 24–21 · replay 44% for the winner
- Browns at Vikings CLE 14–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- Lions at Bears CHI 24–14 · replay 73% for the winner
- Texans at Bills BUF 40–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Colts at Dolphins IND 27–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Chiefs at Eagles KC 42–30 · replay 96% for the winner
- Giants at Saints NYG 27–21 · replay 17% for the winner
- Titans at Jets NYJ 27–24 · replay 29% for the winner
- Washington at Falcons WAS 34–30 · replay 70% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams ARI 37–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SEA 28–21 · replay 9% for the winner
- Ravens at Broncos BAL 23–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- Steelers at Packers GB 27–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Patriots TB 19–17 · replay 78% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 28–14 · replay 78% for the winner