luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2021 NFL season · September 30, 2021–October 4

Week 4 2021: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Giants beat the Saints 27–21 in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 4 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 27–21 @ Saints 29% 17% Lucky
Jets 27–24 vs Titans 34% 29% Lucky
Cardinals 37–20 @ Rams 40% 71% Deserved
Colts 27–17 @ Dolphins 43% 88% Deserved
Seahawks 28–21 @ 49ers 43% 9% Lucky
Ravens 23–7 @ Broncos 47% 88% Deserved

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Seahawks W 28–21 @ 49ers 9% +91
2 Giants W 27–21 @ Saints 17% +83
3 Jets W 27–24 vs Titans 29% +71
4 Bengals W 24–21 vs Jaguars 44% +56
5 Browns W 14–7 @ Vikings 65% +35
6 Washington W 34–30 @ Falcons 70% +30
7 Cardinals W 37–20 @ Rams 71% +29
8 Bears W 24–14 vs Lions 73% +27
9 Cowboys W 36–28 vs Panthers 77% +23
10 Buccaneers W 19–17 @ Patriots 78% +22
11 Chargers W 28–14 vs Raiders 78% +22
12 Ravens W 23–7 @ Broncos 88% +12
13 Colts W 27–17 @ Dolphins 88% +12
14 Packers W 27–17 vs Steelers 89% +11
15 Chiefs W 42–30 @ Eagles 96% +4
16 Bills W 40–0 vs Texans 98% +2
17 Texans L 0–40 @ Bills 2% −2
18 Eagles L 30–42 vs Chiefs 4% −4
19 Steelers L 17–27 @ Packers 11% −11
20 Dolphins L 17–27 vs Colts 12% −12
21 Broncos L 7–23 vs Ravens 12% −12
22 Raiders L 14–28 @ Chargers 22% −22
23 Patriots L 17–19 vs Buccaneers 22% −22
24 Panthers L 28–36 @ Cowboys 23% −23
25 Lions L 14–24 @ Bears 27% −27
26 Rams L 20–37 vs Cardinals 29% −29
27 Falcons L 30–34 vs Washington 30% −30
28 Vikings L 7–14 vs Browns 35% −35
29 Jaguars L 21–24 @ Bengals 56% −56
30 Titans L 24–27 @ Jets 71% −71
31 Saints L 21–27 vs Giants 83% −83
32 49ers L 21–28 vs Seahawks 91% −91