Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Chargers at Broncos, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Chargers 28–13, but the replays lean toward the Chargers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:29 left): the Chargers converted 4th & 4, worth 10 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 13 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +64 Broncos very lucky · −64 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 6, Broncos win 4.
- 1 LAC 36 DEN 13
- 2 LAC 23 DEN 7
- 3 LAC 23 DEN 12
- 4 LAC 23 DEN 16
- 5 LAC 28 DEN 24
- 6 LAC 29 DEN 27
- 7 LAC 13 DEN 15
- 8 LAC 12 DEN 17
- 9 LAC 20 DEN 30
- 10 LAC 17 DEN 34
Your call
Did the Broncos earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 64% of them, Broncos 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 14.3% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 19.6% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 29.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 21.7% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 9.0% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 4.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Chargers 9 for 75 yards, Broncos 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:15 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +6% LAC +1.5 pts |
| Q1 7:46 | Defensive Holding on the Chargers, 5 yards | +3% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:09 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Mike Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% DEN +3.7 pts |
| Q2 8:20 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +1% DEN +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 15 yards | +2% DEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.3 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Donald Parham), 10 yards | +2% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:45 | Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Dre'Mont Jones), 5 yards | +3% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:01 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +1% DEN +1.0 pts |
| Q3 11:05 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DEN +1.2 pts |
| Q3 7:18 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +3% LAC +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:39 | Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Ronald Darby), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% LAC +1.5 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% DEN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:52 | Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 5 yards | +1% DEN +0.6 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:29 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:15 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% LAC | LAC: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:31 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 12:09 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Mike Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2173 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 | +7% DEN | DEN: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 8:41 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +7% DEN | LAC: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 7:58 | D. Hopkins missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 18 of 25 from 45+ before | +6% DEN | LAC: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 1:29 | The Chargers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +10% LAC | LAC: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 15:00 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Garett Bolles (DEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Bobby Massie (DEN T), out · 0.8 pts
- Kareem Jackson (DEN SS), out · 0.5 pts
- Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Bryce Callahan (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Shelby Harris (DEN DE), out · 0.3 pts
- Matt Feiler (LAC G), out · 0.3 pts
- Linval Joseph (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Oday Aboushi (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 13% · Broncos 87%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 15
- Luck in points
- 9.2 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 5.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 64% · Broncos 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · 
Chargers · 
Broncos
More from Week 12 2021
- Bears at Lions CHI 16–14 · replay 79% for the winner
- Raiders at Cowboys LV 36–33 · replay 39% for the winner
- Bills at Saints BUF 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Falcons at Jaguars ATL 21–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Panthers at Dolphins MIA 33–10 · replay 76% for the winner
- Jets at Texans NYJ 21–14 · replay 87% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants NYG 13–7 · replay 19% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals CIN 41–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Colts TB 38–31 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Patriots NE 36–13 · replay 85% for the winner
- Rams at Packers GB 36–28 · replay 23% for the winner
- Vikings at 49ers SF 34–26 · replay 85% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 16–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- Seahawks at Washington WAS 17–15 · replay 90% for the winner