Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Jets at Texans, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Texans 21–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Texans.
An off day for the Texans: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Texans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:14 left): the Jets were stopped on 3rd & 17, worth 13 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final
 New York Jets | 21 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Jets about even · −14 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 9, Texans win 1.
- 1 NYJ 34 HOU 6
- 2 NYJ 30 HOU 9
- 3 NYJ 30 HOU 13
- 4 NYJ 20 HOU 6
- 5 NYJ 26 HOU 15
- 6 NYJ 20 HOU 10
- 7 NYJ 10 HOU 3
- 8 NYJ 22 HOU 17
- 9 NYJ 26 HOU 24
- 10 NYJ 23 HOU 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Texans
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
39 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.04 | worse by 0.02 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.20 | better by 0.34 |
| Texans offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | +0.10 | worse by 0.24 |
| Texans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.19 | better by 0.17 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jets win 86% of them, Texans 14%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 17+ | 36.6% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 23.9% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 25.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 9.1% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Texans by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Jets by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 10.7.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Ammendola, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- M. Ammendola, 42 yds missed · 86% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 55 yds missed · 62% expected
- M. Ammendola, 37 yds made · 91% expected
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:14 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +13% HOU | NYJ: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 14:23 | The Texans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +11% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 10:36 | The Texans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +12% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 8:26 | Leverage on the Texans (Ross Blacklock), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 580 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 | +12% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 13:31 | M. Ammendola missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +12% HOU | NYJ: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 12:05 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +11% HOU | NYJ: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 10:46 | The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% HOU | HOU: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 7:06 | The Jets converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +9% NYJ | NYJ: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Marcus Cannon (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Justin Reid (HOU SS), out · 0.5 pts
- Christian Kirksey (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Mike White (NYJ QB), out (IR), replaced by z.wilson · 0.9 pts
- Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Marcus Maye (NYJ FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Bryce Huff (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Brandin Echols (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Jarrod Wilson (NYJ SS), out · 0.3 pts
- Tyler Kroft (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Michael Carter (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 96% · Texans 4%
- Final margin
- Jets by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for the Texans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 10.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 86% · Texans 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · 
Jets · 
Texans
More from Week 12 2021
- Bears at Lions CHI 16–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Raiders at Cowboys LV 36–33 · replay 37% for the winner
- Bills at Saints BUF 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Falcons at Jaguars ATL 21–14 · replay 85% for the winner
- Panthers at Dolphins MIA 33–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants NYG 13–7 · replay 23% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals CIN 41–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Colts TB 38–31 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Patriots NE 36–13 · replay 86% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos DEN 28–13 · replay 39% for the winner
- Rams at Packers GB 36–28 · replay 24% for the winner
- Vikings at 49ers SF 34–26 · replay 83% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 16–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- Seahawks at Washington WAS 17–15 · replay 89% for the winner