luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

NFC Championship 2020 · January 24, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Packers, NFC Championship 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Packers 31–26, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

An off day for the Packers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:20 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 9, worth 9 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Green Bay Packers 26

January 24, 2021 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +27 Buccaneers lucky · −27 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 7, Packers win 3.

  1. 1 TB 42 GB 13
  2. 2 TB 30 GB 10
  3. 3 TB 41 GB 24
  4. 4 TB 35 GB 23
  5. 5 TB 29 GB 20
  6. 6 TB 28 GB 24
  7. 7 TB 23 GB 21
  8. 8 TB 17 GB 20
  9. 9 TB 14 GB 23
  10. 10 TB 16 GB 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Packers

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%.

30 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained +0.33 +0.19 better by 0.14
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.10 worse by 0.05
Packers offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.23 worse by 0.08
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.33 +0.09 worse by 0.24

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 73% of them, Packers 27%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+27.1%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.8%
Buccaneers by 1–825.7%
Level after regulation3.0%
Packers by 1–814.0%
Packers by 9–166.5%
Packers by 17+4.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 5, without the luck Buccaneers by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Succop, 46 yds made · 72% expected
  • M. Crosby, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 2 for 8 yards, Packers 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q3 7:54 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.5 pts
Q3 1:39 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 3 yards +3% GB +0.5 pts
Q4 13:38 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.3 pts
Q4 1:56 Encroachment on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q4 1:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Kevin King), 15 yards +3% TB +1.4 pts
Q4 1:41 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.1 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:13 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:42 The Packers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:20 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:12 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB GB: Field goal
6 Q2 0:13 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:54 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% TB TB: Turnover
8 Q4 11:32 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% TB GB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Raven Greene (GB S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Antonio Brown (TB WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Alex Cappa (TB G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 53% · Packers 47%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 5
Luck in points
4.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 73% · Packers 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2020 games · Buccaneers · Packers

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