luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022

Colts at Titans, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Colts 19–10, but the replays lean toward the Colts: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Titans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:36 left): Return touchdown by the Titans, worth 35 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 10
Tennessee Titans 19

October 23, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −2.5

Luck index +62 Titans very lucky · −62 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 6, Titans win 4.

  1. 1 IND 26 TEN 6
  2. 2 IND 35 TEN 21
  3. 3 IND 13 TEN 3
  4. 4 IND 10 TEN 3
  5. 5 IND 17 TEN 13
  6. 6 IND 14 TEN 12
  7. 7 IND 21 TEN 23
  8. 8 IND 10 TEN 16
  9. 9 IND 20 TEN 30
  10. 10 IND 6 TEN 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 62% of them, Titans 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+12.2%
Colts by 9–1618.4%
Colts by 1–829.1%
Level after regulation2.9%
Titans by 1–819.6%
Titans by 9–1612.4%
Titans by 17+5.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to the Colts: the final margin was Titans by 9, without the luck Titans by 10.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Bullock, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Bullock, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 50 yds made · 67% expected
  • R. Bullock, 48 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 4 for 28 yards, Titans 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Joe Schobert), 10 yards +1% IND +0.9 pts
Q1 13:29 Defensive Offside on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q2 5:06 Defensive Holding on the Colts, 5 yards +2% TEN +0.8 pts
Q2 3:35 Face Mask on the Colts (Bobby Okereke), 13 yards +2% TEN +1.6 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.2 pts
Q3 12:35 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.7 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:38 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% TEN TEN: Field goal
2 Q1 4:11 D. Hilliard dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 14 catchable balls before this +7% IND TEN: Field goal
3 Q2 10:51 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% IND IND: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 9:36 The Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +35% TEN IND: Turnover
5 Q3 7:25 The Colts converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +5% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:27 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% TEN TEN: Field goal
7 Q4 11:10 The Titans fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% IND TEN: Field goal
8 Q4 4:52 R. Bullock made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 18 of 28 from 45+ before +5% TEN TEN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Harold Landry (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Zach Cunningham (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Shaquille Leonard (IND LB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 3% · Titans 97%

Final margin
Titans by 9
Luck in points
1.2 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 10.2
Replay with same day's form
Colts 62% · Titans 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · Colts · Titans

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