Bengals lucky 19 
Titans unlucky 16 Long shot · Bengals win 19% of replays 2021 NFL season · January 22, 2022–January 23
Divisional round 2021: who deserved to win
1 of 4 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the Titans 19–16 in a game they win 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Bengals lucky 19 Titans unlucky 16 Long shot · Bengals win 19% of replays 
49ers 13 
Packers 10 Replays agree · 49ers win 78% of replays Off day for the Packers 67% to win a fresh game, 22% with this day’s form: offense far below its usual level. 
Rams 30 
Buccaneers 27 Coin flip · Rams win 42% of replays 
Bills 36 
Chiefs 42 Replays agree · Chiefs win 70% of replays Divisional round 2021 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 13–10 @ Packers | 34% | 78% | Deserved |
| Bengals | 19–16 @ Titans | 38% | 19% | Lucky |
| Rams | 30–27 @ Buccaneers | 43% | 42% | Coin flip |
Luck ranking, divisional round
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bengals | W 19–16 @ Titans | 19% | +81 |
| 2 | Rams | W 30–27 @ Buccaneers | 42% | +58 |
| 3 | Chiefs | W 42–36 vs Bills | 70% | +30 |
| 4 | 49ers | W 13–10 @ Packers | 78% | +22 |
| 5 | Packers | L 10–13 vs 49ers | 22% | −22 |
| 6 | Bills | L 36–42 @ Chiefs | 30% | −30 |
| 7 | Buccaneers | L 27–30 vs Rams | 58% | −58 |
| 8 | Titans | L 16–19 vs Bengals | 81% | −81 |