luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · February 13, 2022

Super Bowl 2021: who deserved to win

1 of 1 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Rams beat the Bengals 23–20 in a game they win 49% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Luck ranking, super bowl

Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Rams W 23–20 @ Bengals 49% +51
2 Bengals L 20–23 vs Rams 51% −51