2021 NFL season · final

Turnover luck, 2021: who the fumbles bounced for

The Cardinals recovered 37 of the 51 fumbles in their games in 2021, 11.5 more than chance would give, worth +0.74 wins. The Jaguars recovered 8 of 28, 6.1 fewer than expected (−0.56 wins).

A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, whoever fumbled it and wherever. Beating that rate doesn’t last: a team’s recovery rate one season correlates with the next at 0.09 (192 team-seasons since 2019). Luck in wins counts each bounce by the moment it came: a fumble recovered late in a tied game is worth most of a win, one in a blowout next to nothing. Regular season only. Methodology

Fumble recoveries by team, 2021

Every fumble in a team’s games, its own and its opponents’: how many it came away with, against how many a 51.7% bounce would give.

#	Team	Fumbles	Recovered	Rate	Above expected	Luck in wins	Own fumbles kept	Opponents’ won
1	Cardinals	51	37	73%	+11.5	+0.74	23 of 26	14 of 25
2	Vikings	32	21	66%	+4.9	+0.43	13 of 19	8 of 13
3	Cowboys	37	23	62%	+4.3	+0.60	15 of 24	8 of 13
4	Dolphins	44	26	59%	+3.9	+0.58	14 of 26	12 of 18
5	Raiders	43	25	58%	+3.3	+0.34	16 of 26	9 of 17
6	Bills	39	22	56%	+2.6	+0.02	11 of 17	11 of 22
7	Washington	39	22	56%	+2.3	+0.26	15 of 24	7 of 15
8	Chiefs	46	25	54%	+2.0	+0.13	11 of 23	14 of 23
9	Bears	40	22	55%	+1.9	+0.45	14 of 23	8 of 17
10	Ravens	29	16	55%	+1.4	+0.47	10 of 17	6 of 12
11	Colts	43	22	51%	+0.6	+0.12	9 of 20	13 of 23
12	Patriots	31	16	52%	+0.4	−0.29	9 of 19	7 of 12
13	Packers	34	17	50%	+0.1	+0.45	9 of 15	8 of 19
14	Seahawks	32	16	50%	0.0	+0.55	10 of 16	6 of 16
15	Eagles	33	16	48%	−0.6	−0.07	12 of 18	4 of 15
16	Giants	39	19	49%	−0.6	+0.17	12 of 22	7 of 17
17	Rams	26	12	46%	−0.9	−0.01	6 of 10	6 of 16
18	Saints	26	12	46%	−0.9	−0.23	6 of 11	6 of 15
19	Bengals	36	17	47%	−0.9	−0.58	9 of 16	8 of 20
20	Lions	32	15	47%	−1.0	−0.45	7 of 16	8 of 16
21	Steelers	38	18	47%	−1.0	−0.52	10 of 19	8 of 19
22	Falcons	41	19	46%	−1.5	−0.03	11 of 21	8 of 20
23	Buccaneers	32	14	44%	−1.8	−0.31	2 of 9	12 of 23
24	Chargers	26	11	42%	−1.8	+0.19	1 of 7	10 of 19
25	Texans	38	17	45%	−1.9	−0.19	9 of 16	8 of 22
26	Titans	42	19	45%	−2.1	−0.12	13 of 24	6 of 18
27	Panthers	44	19	43%	−2.9	−0.26	12 of 20	7 of 24
28	Broncos	24	9	38%	−3.0	−0.71	3 of 12	6 of 12
29	49ers	51	22	43%	−3.3	−0.49	11 of 21	11 of 30
30	Jets	35	13	37%	−4.3	−0.38	6 of 13	7 of 22
31	Browns	41	16	39%	−4.4	−0.28	10 of 18	6 of 23
32	Jaguars	28	8	29%	−6.1	−0.56	6 of 18	2 of 10

Fumbles: every fumble in the team’s regular-season games where the ball was loose, its own and its opponents’. Above expected: recoveries minus the 51.7% each fumbler keeps on average. Luck in wins: each bounce’s swing in win probability at the moment it came, net of the opponent’s.

Questions

Which NFL team had the most fumble luck in 2021?

The Cardinals: they recovered 37 of the 51 fumbles in their games (73%), 11.5 more than expected, worth +0.74 wins, the most in the league.

Is turnover luck real?

For fumbles, yes. A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, and a team that beats that rate one season doesn't the next: the correlation between consecutive seasons is 0.09 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Interceptions are different: how many interception-worthy passes a quarterback throws carries over (0.39), so part of a team's turnover margin is skill.

Do teams that recover a lot of fumbles keep doing it?

No. Recovery rates since 2019 carry over from one season to the next at 0.09, close to the zero a coin would give. Teams at the top of this table usually land near the middle a year later.

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2020 · 2019

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