luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

2024 NFL season · final

Turnover luck, 2024: who the fumbles bounced for

The Buccaneers recovered 27 of the 43 fumbles in their games in 2024, 5.4 more than chance would give, worth +0.74 wins. The Raiders recovered 7 of 32, 9.0 fewer than expected (−1.24 wins).

A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, whoever fumbled it and wherever. Beating that rate doesn’t last: a team’s recovery rate one season correlates with the next at 0.09 (192 team-seasons since 2019). Luck in wins counts each bounce by the moment it came: a fumble recovered late in a tied game is worth most of a win, one in a blowout next to nothing. Regular season only. Methodology

Fumble recoveries by team, 2024

Every fumble in a team’s games, its own and its opponents’: how many it came away with, against how many a 51.7% bounce would give.

#TeamFumblesRecoveredRateAbove expectedLuck in winsOwn fumbles keptOpponents’ won
1 Buccaneers 432763% +5.4 +0.74 16 of 2311 of 20
2 Bills 382463% +5.3 +0.56 8 of 1016 of 28
3 Packers 392256% +2.6 +0.16 8 of 1614 of 23
4 Falcons 331958% +2.4 +0.77 13 of 186 of 15
5 Chargers 271659% +2.4 +0.41 10 of 166 of 11
6 Rams 241458% +2.0 +0.35 7 of 127 of 12
7 Bears 412254% +1.6 −0.02 9 of 1813 of 23
8 Panthers 271556% +1.5 −0.13 7 of 148 of 13
9 Lions 301653% +1.1 −0.19 8 of 118 of 19
10 Chiefs 241354% +1.1 +0.21 6 of 97 of 15
11 Commanders 402153% +1.1 +0.05 11 of 1810 of 22
12 Dolphins 382053% +0.8 −0.13 14 of 256 of 13
13 Steelers 512651% +0.7 +0.37 10 of 2116 of 30
14 Jets 351851% +0.6 +0.45 8 of 1510 of 20
15 Giants 371951% +0.5 −0.29 9 of 1910 of 18
16 Ravens 331752% +0.4 −0.04 12 of 195 of 14
17 Titans 412151% +0.3 +0.20 15 of 276 of 14
18 Eagles 452249% −0.3 −0.14 9 of 1813 of 27
19 Broncos 311548% −0.4 +0.18 6 of 139 of 18
20 Colts 371849% −0.5 −0.40 9 of 189 of 19
21 Cowboys 472349% −0.6 +0.20 14 of 279 of 20
22 Jaguars 271348% −0.7 +0.18 10 of 193 of 8
23 Cardinals 381847% −1.0 +0.38 10 of 198 of 19
24 Browns 361747% −1.1 −0.31 9 of 208 of 16
25 Vikings 331545% −1.4 −0.38 6 of 159 of 18
26 Bengals 351646% −1.6 +0.08 7 of 199 of 16
27 49ers 391846% −1.6 −0.35 12 of 236 of 16
28 Seahawks 411844% −2.5 −0.43 13 of 215 of 20
29 Saints 251040% −2.6 −0.31 7 of 143 of 11
30 Texans 301240% −2.9 −0.20 4 of 118 of 19
31 Patriots 512243% −3.6 −0.75 17 of 295 of 22
32 Raiders 32722% −9.0 −1.24 4 of 173 of 15

Fumbles: every fumble in the team’s regular-season games where the ball was loose, its own and its opponents’. Above expected: recoveries minus the 51.7% each fumbler keeps on average. Luck in wins: each bounce’s swing in win probability at the moment it came, net of the opponent’s.

And interceptions?

Interceptions are only partly luck. FTN’s charting marks every throw a defender could have caught. How many of those a team throws is mostly its quarterback: it carries over from one season to the next at 0.39. Whether the defense holds on is closer to chance (0.02, 96 team-seasons), but within a season it runs with team quality, so our luck numbers leave interceptions out (methodology). Here are both sides, 2024.

TeamIts interception-worthy throwsPickedOpponents’ interception-worthy throwsCaughtCaught vs expected
Vikings 1811 3222+4.1
Broncos 2110 1713+3.5
Lions 129 2416+2.6
Chargers 83 2114+2.3
Bengals 137 2214+1.7
Packers 1610 2415+1.7
49ers 2013 1711+1.5
Chiefs 1710 1912+1.4
Seahawks 2914 1912+1.4
Steelers 106 2113+1.3
Titans 3117 149+1.2
Colts 2618 2314+1.2
Rams 189 1610+1.1
Falcons 2516 1610+1.1
Jets 117 117+0.9
Texans 1812 3118+0.7
Panthers 1412 127+0.3
Bills 145 2514+0.1
Bears 137 18100.0
Patriots 179 116−0.1
Saints 2211 2011−0.2
Eagles 156 2212−0.2
Dolphins 2110 158−0.4
Raiders 2013 158−0.4
Cardinals 1210 105−0.6
Cowboys 3114 199−1.6
Giants 2311 114−2.1
Buccaneers 1913 166−2.9
Jaguars 2112 175−4.4
Commanders 126 196−4.6
Browns 3820 143−4.8
Ravens 112 259−4.9

Interception-worthy throws: FTN Data via nflverse. Expected catches use each defense’s own record on such throws, shrunk toward that season’s league rate.

Questions

Which NFL team had the most fumble luck in 2024?

The Buccaneers: they recovered 27 of the 43 fumbles in their games (63%), 5.4 more than expected. The Falcons gained the most from it in wins, +0.77, because their bounces came at bigger moments.

Is turnover luck real?

For fumbles, yes. A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, and a team that beats that rate one season doesn't the next: the correlation between consecutive seasons is 0.09 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Interceptions are different: how many interception-worthy passes a quarterback throws carries over (0.39), so part of a team's turnover margin is skill.

Do teams that recover a lot of fumbles keep doing it?

No. Recovery rates since 2019 carry over from one season to the next at 0.09, close to the zero a coin would give. Teams at the top of this table usually land near the middle a year later.

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019

2024 luck rankings · Kicking luck · Injury luck · Regression candidates · Every kind of luck