2020 NFL season · final
Turnover luck, 2020: who the fumbles bounced for
The Panthers recovered 21 of the 31 fumbles in their games in 2020, 5.7 more than chance would give, worth +1.05 wins. The 49ers recovered 12 of 38, 7.0 fewer than expected (−1.22 wins).
A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, whoever fumbled it and wherever. Beating that rate doesn’t last: a team’s recovery rate one season correlates with the next at 0.09 (192 team-seasons since 2019). Luck in wins counts each bounce by the moment it came: a fumble recovered late in a tied game is worth most of a win, one in a blowout next to nothing. Regular season only. Methodology
Fumble recoveries by team, 2020
Every fumble in a team’s games, its own and its opponents’: how many it came away with, against how many a 51.7% bounce would give.
| # | Team | Fumbles | Recovered | Rate | Above expected | Luck in wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panthers | 31 | 21 | 68% | +5.7 | +1.05 |
| 2 |  Eagles | 43 | 27 | 63% | +5.4 | +0.92 |
| 3 |  Ravens | 42 | 25 | 60% | +4.0 | +0.09 |
| 4 |  Bears | 34 | 21 | 62% | +3.9 | 0.00 |
| 5 |  Saints | 38 | 23 | 61% | +3.8 | +0.33 |
| 6 |  Steelers | 35 | 21 | 60% | +3.4 | +0.53 |
| 7 |  Cardinals | 36 | 21 | 58% | +3.0 | +0.47 |
| 8 |  Patriots | 26 | 16 | 62% | +2.9 | +0.08 |
| 9 |  Seahawks | 26 | 15 | 58% | +2.1 | +0.09 |
| 10 |  Dolphins | 34 | 19 | 56% | +2.0 | +0.43 |
| 11 |  Chargers | 28 | 16 | 57% | +2.0 | −0.13 |
| 12 |  Buccaneers | 29 | 16 | 55% | +1.6 | −0.14 |
| 13 |  Titans | 33 | 17 | 52% | +0.6 | −0.12 |
| 14 |  Browns | 42 | 21 | 50% | +0.1 | −0.20 |
| 15 |  Cowboys | 34 | 17 | 50% | 0.0 | −0.07 |
| 16 |  Broncos | 34 | 17 | 50% | −0.1 | −0.14 |
| 17 |  Falcons | 31 | 15 | 48% | −0.4 | +0.09 |
| 18 |  Colts | 22 | 10 | 45% | −0.8 | +0.19 |
| 19 |  Rams | 30 | 14 | 47% | −1.0 | −0.07 |
| 20 |  Vikings | 34 | 16 | 47% | −1.1 | −0.26 |
| 21 |  Chiefs | 24 | 11 | 46% | −1.1 | +0.12 |
| 22 |  Washington | 41 | 19 | 46% | −1.6 | −0.03 |
| 23 |  Packers | 24 | 10 | 42% | −1.9 | −0.45 |
| 24 |  Texans | 26 | 11 | 42% | −2.1 | −0.44 |
| 25 |  Jets | 27 | 11 | 41% | −2.3 | −0.01 |
| 26 |  Bills | 36 | 15 | 42% | −2.9 | −0.30 |
| 27 |  Bengals | 28 | 11 | 39% | −3.1 | −0.30 |
| 28 |  Giants | 41 | 17 | 41% | −3.4 | −0.04 |
| 29 |  Jaguars | 27 | 10 | 37% | −3.5 | −0.02 |
| 30 |  Lions | 26 | 9 | 35% | −4.0 | −0.28 |
| 31 |  Raiders | 30 | 11 | 37% | −4.2 | −0.16 |
| 32 |  49ers | 38 | 12 | 32% | −7.0 | −1.22 |
Fumbles: every fumble in the team’s regular-season games where the ball was loose, its own and its opponents’. Above expected: recoveries minus the 51.7% each fumbler keeps on average. Luck in wins: each bounce’s swing in win probability at the moment it came, net of the opponent’s.
Questions
Which NFL team had the most fumble luck in 2020?
The Panthers: they recovered 21 of the 31 fumbles in their games (68%), 5.7 more than expected, worth +1.05 wins, the most in the league.
Is turnover luck real?
For fumbles, yes. A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, and a team that beats that rate one season doesn't the next: the correlation between consecutive seasons is 0.09 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Interceptions are different: how many interception-worthy passes a quarterback throws carries over (0.39), so part of a team's turnover margin is skill.
Do teams that recover a lot of fumbles keep doing it?
No. Recovery rates since 2019 carry over from one season to the next at 0.09, close to the zero a coin would give. Teams at the top of this table usually land near the middle a year later.
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2019
2020 luck rankings · Kicking luck · Injury luck · Regression candidates · Every kind of luck