luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

2020 NFL season · final

Kicking luck, 2020: who the kicks went for

Kicks were worth +0.94 wins to the Raiders in 2020, more than to any other team: their own kickers made 1.7 more than expected, their opponents 1.3 fewer than expected. The Panthers lost the most to kicks, −1.35 wins.

Each field goal has an expected make rate from its distance, the wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record (long kicks especially). Made above that is luck; so is an opponent missing a kick he usually makes. None of it carries over: field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’. Luck in wins weighs each kick by the moment, so a missed 45-yarder at the gun counts for far more than one in the second quarter, and adds extra points. Regular season only. Methodology

Kicking luck by team, 2020

#TeamField goalsAbove expectedOpponents’ field goalsAbove expectedLuck in wins
1 Raiders 33 of 35 94% +1.7 32 of 39 82% −1.3 +0.94
2 Patriots 26 of 28 93% +1.8 22 of 27 81% −0.9 +0.85
3 Dolphins 36 of 39 92% +3.5 17 of 23 74% −2.4 +0.85
4 Chiefs 25 of 27 93% +1.3 18 of 26 69% −2.2 +0.84
5 Ravens 26 of 29 90% +0.8 16 of 24 67% −4.3 +0.68
6 Giants 31 of 32 97% +3.6 32 of 36 89% +0.8 +0.64
7 Lions 21 of 28 75% −1.5 16 of 20 80% −1.2 +0.51
8 Texans 27 of 31 87% +0.4 25 of 31 81% −2.2 +0.31
9 Cowboys 34 of 41 83% +0.5 24 of 27 89% +0.2 +0.30
10 Bears 30 of 32 94% +2.2 29 of 35 83% −1.9 +0.25
11 Buccaneers 28 of 31 90% +0.9 21 of 26 81% −1.4 +0.23
12 Packers 16 of 16 100% +2.7 24 of 27 89% +0.4 +0.19
13 49ers 22 of 26 85% 0.0 33 of 37 89% +2.2 +0.12
14 Colts 32 of 37 86% −1.3 19 of 23 83% −0.3 +0.03
15 Browns 19 of 24 79% −1.3 23 of 27 85% +0.1 −0.07
16 Vikings 15 of 22 68% −3.5 35 of 39 90% +1.5 −0.08
17 Steelers 23 of 24 96% +1.8 20 of 24 83% +0.2 −0.08
18 Jaguars 18 of 25 72% −2.2 31 of 39 79% −1.9 −0.08
19 Jets 21 of 28 75% −2.9 29 of 35 83% +0.3 −0.12
20 Saints 23 of 28 82% −1.6 22 of 26 85% +1.2 −0.16
21 Washington 27 of 34 79% −1.2 24 of 27 89% +1.1 −0.18
22 Bills 28 of 34 82% −0.9 23 of 25 92% +1.9 −0.19
23 Falcons 38 of 40 95% +2.7 24 of 28 86% −0.2 −0.22
24 Seahawks 24 of 24 100% +3.8 29 of 35 83% +0.1 −0.27
25 Rams 24 of 30 80% −2.6 22 of 26 85% 0.0 −0.29
26 Titans 20 of 28 71% −2.5 21 of 23 91% +0.9 −0.31
27 Eagles 14 of 19 74% −1.7 27 of 32 84% +0.9 −0.33
28 Broncos 28 of 35 80% +0.8 39 of 42 93% +2.2 −0.36
29 Bengals 27 of 34 79% −1.7 33 of 38 87% +0.5 −0.54
30 Cardinals 23 of 30 77% −2.2 25 of 30 83% −0.7 −1.02
31 Chargers 24 of 33 73% −3.6 28 of 32 88% +0.4 −1.10
32 Panthers 29 of 36 81% −1.4 29 of 31 94% +2.8 −1.35

Field goals include blocked kicks. Above expected: made minus the sum of each kick’s make probability. For opponents, above expected is bad luck for the team. Net field goals above expected, the Dolphins lead with +5.9. Luck in wins also counts extra points and is net of the opponent’s.

Questions

Which NFL team had the most kicking luck in 2020?

The Raiders: field goals and extra points, theirs and their opponents’, were worth +0.94 wins to them, weighted by the moment each kick came. The Panthers had the least, −1.35.

Which team's opponents missed the most field goals in 2020?

The Ravens’ opponents made 16 of 24 field goals, 4.3 fewer than expected for those distances, conditions and kickers.

Is kicking luck or skill?

Both, and the expectation separates them: it knows each kick’s distance, wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record, so a good kicker making his kicks counts as skill. What’s left doesn’t carry over. Field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’ (192 team-seasons since 2019).

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