luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

2022 NFL season · final

Kicking luck, 2022: who the kicks went for

Kicks were worth +0.91 wins to the Chargers in 2022, more than to any other team: their own kickers made 0.8 more than expected, their opponents 2.1 fewer than expected. The Chiefs lost the most to kicks, −1.47 wins.

Each field goal has an expected make rate from its distance, the wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record (long kicks especially). Made above that is luck; so is an opponent missing a kick he usually makes. None of it carries over: field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’. Luck in wins weighs each kick by the moment, so a missed 45-yarder at the gun counts for far more than one in the second quarter, and adds extra points. Regular season only. Methodology

Kicking luck by team, 2022

#TeamField goalsAbove expectedOpponents’ field goalsAbove expectedLuck in wins
1 Chargers 31 of 33 94% +0.8 28 of 35 80% −2.1 +0.91
2 Giants 29 of 32 91% +2.3 37 of 43 86% +0.9 +0.79
3 Steelers 34 of 44 77% −2.7 30 of 34 88% +1.6 +0.69
4 Ravens 37 of 43 86% +0.3 31 of 38 82% −1.7 +0.63
5 Raiders 34 of 37 92% +2.5 28 of 40 70% −4.5 +0.62
6 Rams 28 of 30 93% +2.3 36 of 40 90% +0.2 +0.58
7 Texans 29 of 31 94% +2.8 28 of 32 88% +0.9 +0.43
8 Vikings 26 of 33 79% −1.5 38 of 44 86% +2.5 +0.39
9 Bears 25 of 27 93% +1.7 21 of 29 72% −3.9 +0.39
10 Seahawks 34 of 37 92% +1.2 26 of 32 81% −0.8 +0.37
11 Packers 25 of 29 86% +0.2 27 of 34 79% −1.4 +0.35
12 Cowboys 29 of 32 91% +3.0 34 of 40 85% +0.8 +0.27
13 Bills 27 of 31 87% +1.0 21 of 28 75% −2.5 +0.25
14 Lions 24 of 30 80% −0.5 25 of 30 83% −0.6 +0.22
15 Eagles 22 of 25 88% +0.9 22 of 25 88% +0.7 +0.15
16 Falcons 32 of 37 86% +0.1 33 of 38 87% 0.0 +0.01
17 Patriots 32 of 37 86% 0.0 24 of 29 83% −0.2 −0.03
18 49ers 27 of 32 84% −1.2 16 of 21 76% −1.6 −0.06
19 Jaguars 30 of 35 86% −0.4 26 of 27 96% +3.8 −0.09
20 Panthers 33 of 35 94% +2.6 24 of 33 73% −4.3 −0.13
21 Jets 30 of 37 81% +0.2 33 of 43 77% −2.4 −0.17
22 Cardinals 28 of 32 88% +1.2 29 of 31 94% +1.8 −0.22
23 Colts 32 of 39 82% +0.5 26 of 28 93% +1.4 −0.23
24 Dolphins 26 of 32 81% −0.1 27 of 29 93% +1.6 −0.28
25 Commanders 25 of 30 83% −0.5 26 of 29 90% +1.2 −0.32
26 Bengals 24 of 29 83% −0.8 34 of 40 85% +0.5 −0.35
27 Browns 24 of 32 75% −2.5 30 of 35 86% −0.2 −0.57
28 Saints 23 of 31 74% −2.9 32 of 35 91% +2.8 −0.58
29 Buccaneers 31 of 38 82% −1.2 24 of 27 89% +1.4 −0.58
30 Titans 20 of 24 83% −0.6 25 of 27 93% +1.4 −0.86
31 Broncos 28 of 36 78% −0.8 39 of 41 95% +4.7 −1.10
32 Chiefs 24 of 32 75% −3.6 23 of 25 92% +2.4 −1.47

Field goals include blocked kicks. Above expected: made minus the sum of each kick’s make probability. For opponents, above expected is bad luck for the team. Net field goals above expected, the Raiders lead with +7.0. Luck in wins also counts extra points and is net of the opponent’s.

Questions

Which NFL team had the most kicking luck in 2022?

The Chargers: field goals and extra points, theirs and their opponents’, were worth +0.91 wins to them, weighted by the moment each kick came. The Chiefs had the least, −1.47.

Which team's opponents missed the most field goals in 2022?

The Raiders’ opponents made 28 of 40 field goals, 4.5 fewer than expected for those distances, conditions and kickers.

Is kicking luck or skill?

Both, and the expectation separates them: it knows each kick’s distance, wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record, so a good kicker making his kicks counts as skill. What’s left doesn’t carry over. Field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’ (192 team-seasons since 2019).

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