luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

2019 NFL season · final

Kicking luck, 2019: who the kicks went for

Kicks were worth +1.19 wins to the Chargers in 2019, more than to any other team: their own kickers made 3.1 fewer than expected, their opponents 4.4 fewer than expected. The Colts lost the most to kicks, −1.53 wins.

Each field goal has an expected make rate from its distance, the wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record (long kicks especially). Made above that is luck; so is an opponent missing a kick he usually makes. None of it carries over: field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’. Luck in wins weighs each kick by the moment, so a missed 45-yarder at the gun counts for far more than one in the second quarter, and adds extra points. Regular season only. Methodology

Kicking luck by team, 2019

#TeamField goalsAbove expectedOpponents’ field goalsAbove expectedLuck in wins
1 Chargers 26 of 34 76% −3.1 23 of 33 70% −4.4 +1.19
2 Jaguars 33 of 34 97% +2.8 22 of 27 81% −1.5 +0.89
3 Saints 32 of 36 89% +0.9 22 of 24 92% +0.6 +0.71
4 Bills 22 of 28 79% −0.8 16 of 26 62% −5.6 +0.57
5 Browns 25 of 29 86% 0.0 23 of 32 72% −4.0 +0.53
6 Ravens 28 of 29 97% +2.3 27 of 31 87% +0.2 +0.52
7 Seahawks 23 of 28 82% −1.2 25 of 35 71% −4.7 +0.49
8 Steelers 29 of 31 94% +1.4 25 of 31 81% −1.8 +0.33
9 Titans 8 of 18 44% −6.3 21 of 27 78% −1.2 +0.32
10 Lions 26 of 31 84% −0.3 27 of 34 79% −3.5 +0.29
11 Panthers 25 of 32 78% −0.6 27 of 35 77% −3.1 +0.28
12 Washington 25 of 30 83% −0.8 25 of 30 83% −1.5 +0.16
13 Packers 22 of 24 92% +0.9 27 of 32 84% −0.3 +0.08
14 Giants 12 of 17 71% −3.1 25 of 32 78% −1.2 +0.04
15 Cardinals 31 of 35 89% −0.9 27 of 32 84% −1.3 +0.02
16 Chiefs 34 of 38 89% +1.5 21 of 26 81% −1.9 −0.01
17 Bears 23 of 28 82% −2.1 23 of 30 77% −3.5 −0.01
18 Eagles 22 of 26 85% −0.3 23 of 27 85% +0.9 −0.02
19 Jets 19 of 28 68% −3.2 28 of 34 82% −0.9 −0.06
20 Dolphins 23 of 30 77% −1.6 31 of 38 82% −0.2 −0.08
21 Cowboys 30 of 40 75% −3.2 26 of 32 81% −2.4 −0.10
22 Falcons 32 of 40 80% −2.5 30 of 34 88% +0.6 −0.22
23 Raiders 19 of 26 73% −3.4 20 of 26 77% −1.2 −0.28
24 Patriots 27 of 34 79% −3.4 17 of 19 89% +1.0 −0.32
25 Bengals 27 of 31 87% +0.9 30 of 34 88% +0.2 −0.36
26 Vikings 27 of 29 93% +1.2 29 of 33 88% −0.1 −0.39
27 Broncos 29 of 34 85% +1.0 34 of 39 87% +0.5 −0.52
28 Texans 20 of 25 80% −1.2 21 of 26 81% −0.8 −0.56
29 Rams 24 of 33 73% −3.6 24 of 30 80% −1.2 −0.57
30 49ers 30 of 39 77% −3.4 17 of 20 85% +0.4 −0.58
31 Buccaneers 27 of 35 77% −2.2 37 of 43 86% +1.1 −0.81
32 Colts 22 of 31 71% −4.1 29 of 31 94% +2.0 −1.53

Field goals include blocked kicks. Above expected: made minus the sum of each kick’s make probability. For opponents, above expected is bad luck for the team. Net field goals above expected, the Bills lead with +4.8. Luck in wins also counts extra points and is net of the opponent’s.

Questions

Which NFL team had the most kicking luck in 2019?

The Chargers: field goals and extra points, theirs and their opponents’, were worth +1.19 wins to them, weighted by the moment each kick came. The Colts had the least, −1.53.

Which team's opponents missed the most field goals in 2019?

The Bills’ opponents made 16 of 26 field goals, 5.6 fewer than expected for those distances, conditions and kickers.

Is kicking luck or skill?

Both, and the expectation separates them: it knows each kick’s distance, wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record, so a good kicker making his kicks counts as skill. What’s left doesn’t carry over. Field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’ (192 team-seasons since 2019).

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