luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

2024 NFL season · final

Kicking luck, 2024: who the kicks went for

Kicks were worth +1.16 wins to the Chiefs in 2024, more than to any other team: their own kickers made 0.7 fewer than expected, their opponents 2.1 fewer than expected. The Texans lost the most to kicks, −1.40 wins.

Each field goal has an expected make rate from its distance, the wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record (long kicks especially). Made above that is luck; so is an opponent missing a kick he usually makes. None of it carries over: field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’. Luck in wins weighs each kick by the moment, so a missed 45-yarder at the gun counts for far more than one in the second quarter, and adds extra points. Regular season only. Methodology

Kicking luck by team, 2024

#TeamField goalsAbove expectedOpponents’ field goalsAbove expectedLuck in wins
1 Chiefs 32 of 37 86% −0.7 24 of 31 77% −2.1 +1.16
2 Lions 26 of 29 90% +1.8 28 of 35 80% −1.2 +1.16
3 Buccaneers 30 of 32 94% +2.3 33 of 44 75% −4.3 +0.66
4 Steelers 41 of 44 93% +3.4 26 of 33 79% −2.4 +0.62
5 Chargers 39 of 42 93% +2.2 28 of 37 76% −3.6 +0.59
6 Saints 27 of 31 87% +0.9 33 of 42 79% −2.7 +0.55
7 Titans 25 of 27 93% +2.0 26 of 31 84% −0.3 +0.49
8 Commanders 34 of 42 81% −1.0 28 of 35 80% −2.1 +0.41
9 Packers 32 of 38 84% −1.0 23 of 27 85% +0.1 +0.37
10 Jaguars 27 of 29 93% +2.1 34 of 40 85% −0.2 +0.24
11 Vikings 35 of 42 83% −0.6 23 of 30 77% −2.7 +0.15
12 Colts 31 of 37 84% −0.8 30 of 38 79% −0.7 +0.14
13 Cowboys 40 of 47 85% +1.0 29 of 31 94% +2.5 +0.14
14 Bills 24 of 29 83% −0.1 20 of 25 80% −1.3 +0.12
15 Browns 18 of 27 67% −3.9 22 of 31 71% −2.8 +0.10
16 Bears 21 of 25 84% +0.6 38 of 43 88% +1.7 +0.06
17 Giants 23 of 28 82% −0.9 29 of 37 78% −3.3 +0.03
18 Patriots 26 of 33 79% −0.7 30 of 35 86% −0.7 −0.07
19 Cardinals 34 of 38 89% +1.9 34 of 38 89% +1.7 −0.08
20 Rams 29 of 34 85% −0.4 30 of 33 91% +1.7 −0.16
21 Raiders 34 of 40 85% −0.4 38 of 43 88% +1.1 −0.18
22 Broncos 31 of 34 91% +2.8 29 of 33 88% +0.2 −0.19
23 Seahawks 26 of 30 87% +2.2 29 of 34 85% −0.9 −0.24
24 Dolphins 37 of 41 90% +3.5 36 of 42 86% +0.9 −0.32
25 Panthers 22 of 26 85% −1.3 36 of 42 86% +1.3 −0.36
26 Bengals 25 of 33 76% −3.0 22 of 26 85% +0.1 −0.41
27 49ers 33 of 43 77% −2.5 30 of 32 94% +3.7 −0.51
28 Eagles 28 of 36 78% −2.7 25 of 32 78% −2.2 −0.59
29 Jets 20 of 28 71% −4.6 38 of 42 90% +3.4 −0.68
30 Falcons 29 of 41 71% −6.2 31 of 32 97% +3.7 −0.89
31 Ravens 22 of 30 73% −2.7 29 of 33 88% +2.5 −0.94
32 Texans 36 of 42 86% +0.8 26 of 28 93% +3.2 −1.40

Field goals include blocked kicks. Above expected: made minus the sum of each kick’s make probability. For opponents, above expected is bad luck for the team. Net field goals above expected, the Buccaneers lead with +6.6. Luck in wins also counts extra points and is net of the opponent’s.

Questions

Which NFL team had the most kicking luck in 2024?

The Chiefs: field goals and extra points, theirs and their opponents’, were worth +1.16 wins to them, weighted by the moment each kick came. The Texans had the least, −1.40.

Which team's opponents missed the most field goals in 2024?

The Buccaneers’ opponents made 33 of 44 field goals, 4.3 fewer than expected for those distances, conditions and kickers.

Is kicking luck or skill?

Both, and the expectation separates them: it knows each kick’s distance, wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record, so a good kicker making his kicks counts as skill. What’s left doesn’t carry over. Field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’ (192 team-seasons since 2019).

Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019

2024 luck rankings · Turnover luck · Injury luck · Unluckiest losses · Every kind of luck