2023 NFL season · final
Kicking luck, 2023: who the kicks went for
Kicks were worth +1.51 wins to the Browns in 2023, more than to any other team: their own kickers made 3.2 more than expected, their opponents 3.2 fewer than expected. The Ravens lost the most to kicks, −1.24 wins.
Each field goal has an expected make rate from its distance, the wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record (long kicks especially). Made above that is luck; so is an opponent missing a kick he usually makes. None of it carries over: field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’. Luck in wins weighs each kick by the moment, so a missed 45-yarder at the gun counts for far more than one in the second quarter, and adds extra points. Regular season only. Methodology
Kicking luck by team, 2023
| # | Team | Field goals | Above expected | Opponents’ field goals | Above expected | Luck in wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Browns | 34 of 37 92% | +3.2 | 17 of 24 71% | −3.2 | +1.51 |
| 2 |  Bears | 35 of 38 92% | +2.6 | 24 of 33 73% | −2.9 | +0.94 |
| 3 |  Jets | 36 of 39 92% | +3.0 | 34 of 39 87% | +0.6 | +0.80 |
| 4 |  Eagles | 30 of 32 94% | +3.1 | 23 of 26 88% | +1.3 | +0.72 |
| 5 |  Chargers | 31 of 33 94% | +2.8 | 24 of 27 89% | −0.2 | +0.59 |
| 6 |  Seahawks | 35 of 42 83% | −1.2 | 29 of 35 83% | −1.2 | +0.52 |
| 7 |  Texans | 34 of 38 89% | +1.1 | 30 of 36 83% | +0.3 | +0.47 |
| 8 |  Colts | 33 of 41 80% | −1.5 | 36 of 41 88% | +1.7 | +0.47 |
| 9 |  Buccaneers | 29 of 31 94% | +2.7 | 29 of 36 81% | −2.2 | +0.29 |
| 10 |  Chiefs | 33 of 35 94% | +2.2 | 22 of 26 85% | −1.1 | +0.26 |
| 11 |  Cowboys | 36 of 38 95% | +2.7 | 22 of 26 85% | +0.3 | +0.26 |
| 12 |  Steelers | 29 of 31 94% | +1.8 | 32 of 37 86% | 0.0 | +0.25 |
| 13 |  Bengals | 26 of 31 84% | +0.5 | 32 of 35 91% | +1.9 | +0.24 |
| 14 |  Lions | 19 of 21 90% | −0.1 | 26 of 30 87% | +0.1 | +0.19 |
| 15 |  Packers | 27 of 33 82% | −1.2 | 31 of 38 82% | −1.4 | +0.14 |
| 16 |  Giants | 22 of 31 71% | −4.0 | 25 of 32 78% | −2.8 | +0.09 |
| 17 |  Broncos | 30 of 34 88% | +0.3 | 30 of 35 86% | +0.6 | −0.04 |
| 18 |  Rams | 32 of 43 74% | −3.8 | 30 of 38 79% | −1.9 | −0.06 |
| 19 |  Jaguars | 30 of 37 81% | −0.9 | 21 of 26 81% | −0.6 | −0.08 |
| 20 |  Dolphins | 24 of 28 86% | +1.0 | 18 of 21 86% | +0.1 | −0.18 |
| 21 |  Falcons | 32 of 37 86% | −1.0 | 39 of 41 95% | +3.1 | −0.23 |
| 22 |  Cardinals | 28 of 33 85% | +1.0 | 26 of 31 84% | −1.3 | −0.24 |
| 23 |  Saints | 30 of 37 81% | −1.5 | 30 of 35 86% | −0.9 | −0.29 |
| 24 |  Patriots | 16 of 25 64% | −4.2 | 31 of 38 82% | −0.5 | −0.45 |
| 25 |  Raiders | 26 of 30 87% | −1.3 | 25 of 30 83% | −0.5 | −0.49 |
| 26 |  Vikings | 24 of 30 80% | −1.5 | 32 of 36 89% | +1.6 | −0.58 |
| 27 |  Titans | 29 of 30 97% | +2.5 | 46 of 47 98% | +3.5 | −0.59 |
| 28 |  Panthers | 25 of 30 83% | −0.4 | 25 of 26 96% | +2.3 | −0.66 |
| 29 |  49ers | 21 of 25 84% | −1.1 | 29 of 33 88% | +2.1 | −0.81 |
| 30 |  Commanders | 19 of 24 79% | −0.6 | 35 of 39 90% | +1.3 | −0.89 |
| 31 |  Bills | 24 of 29 83% | −1.0 | 26 of 28 93% | +2.5 | −0.90 |
| 32 |  Ravens | 32 of 37 86% | −0.9 | 32 of 35 91% | +1.9 | −1.24 |
Field goals include blocked kicks. Above expected: made minus the sum of each kick’s make probability. For opponents, above expected is bad luck for the team. Net field goals above expected, the Browns lead with +6.4. Luck in wins also counts extra points and is net of the opponent’s.
Questions
Which NFL team had the most kicking luck in 2023?
The Browns: field goals and extra points, theirs and their opponents’, were worth +1.51 wins to them, weighted by the moment each kick came. The Ravens had the least, −1.24.
Which team's opponents missed the most field goals in 2023?
The Browns’ opponents made 17 of 24 field goals, 3.2 fewer than expected for those distances, conditions and kickers.
Is kicking luck or skill?
Both, and the expectation separates them: it knows each kick’s distance, wind and cold, and the kicker’s own record, so a good kicker making his kicks counts as skill. What’s left doesn’t carry over. Field goals above expected correlate from one season to the next at 0.00 for a team’s own kickers and −0.02 for its opponents’ (192 team-seasons since 2019).
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