luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

2023 NFL season · final

Turnover luck, 2023: who the fumbles bounced for

The Packers recovered 24 of the 34 fumbles in their games in 2023, 6.9 more than chance would give, worth +0.90 wins. The Jets recovered 21 of 54, 6.1 fewer than expected (−0.47 wins).

A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, whoever fumbled it and wherever. Beating that rate doesn’t last: a team’s recovery rate one season correlates with the next at 0.09 (192 team-seasons since 2019). Luck in wins counts each bounce by the moment it came: a fumble recovered late in a tied game is worth most of a win, one in a blowout next to nothing. Regular season only. Methodology

Fumble recoveries by team, 2023

Every fumble in a team’s games, its own and its opponents’: how many it came away with, against how many a 51.7% bounce would give.

#TeamFumblesRecoveredRateAbove expectedLuck in winsOwn fumbles keptOpponents’ won
1 Packers 342471% +6.9 +0.90 14 of 2010 of 14
2 Giants 432865% +6.4 +0.46 16 of 2312 of 20
3 Cardinals 261973% +5.8 +0.73 13 of 186 of 8
4 Dolphins 392564% +5.4 +0.69 13 of 2212 of 17
5 Texans 311961% +3.5 +0.33 9 of 1510 of 16
6 Buccaneers 422457% +3.0 +0.20 12 of 2012 of 22
7 Saints 281761% +3.0 +0.15 6 of 1311 of 15
8 Bengals 251560% +2.6 −0.06 7 of 98 of 16
9 Steelers 382155% +2.1 +0.46 10 of 1511 of 23
10 Bills 341956% +2.0 −0.06 7 of 1612 of 18
11 Raiders 281657% +2.0 +0.46 7 of 139 of 15
12 Cowboys 291552% +0.6 −0.14 6 of 119 of 18
13 Rams 201050% 0.0 +0.33 5 of 95 of 11
14 Seahawks 231148% −0.4 +0.07 3 of 88 of 15
15 49ers 291448% −0.5 −0.17 8 of 146 of 15
16 Commanders 331648% −0.6 −0.23 7 of 189 of 15
17 Jaguars 391949% −0.6 +0.24 8 of 2311 of 16
18 Bears 331648% −0.6 −0.20 10 of 206 of 13
19 Chargers 462248% −1.0 −0.03 10 of 2312 of 23
20 Chiefs 371746% −1.5 −0.18 8 of 199 of 18
21 Browns 432047% −1.6 −0.18 11 of 249 of 19
22 Panthers 311445% −1.7 −0.20 11 of 213 of 10
23 Ravens 442045% −1.9 −0.43 8 of 2012 of 24
24 Titans 311342% −2.5 −0.18 7 of 166 of 15
25 Vikings 452044% −2.5 −0.14 9 of 2311 of 22
26 Eagles 401743% −3.0 −0.31 9 of 218 of 19
27 Lions 281139% −3.1 −0.42 5 of 166 of 12
28 Patriots 381539% −3.9 −0.16 7 of 158 of 23
29 Falcons 441841% −3.9 −0.14 10 of 208 of 24
30 Colts 381539% −4.0 −0.73 7 of 188 of 20
31 Broncos 471940% −4.3 −0.60 4 of 1715 of 30
32 Jets 542139% −6.1 −0.47 12 of 309 of 24

Fumbles: every fumble in the team’s regular-season games where the ball was loose, its own and its opponents’. Above expected: recoveries minus the 51.7% each fumbler keeps on average. Luck in wins: each bounce’s swing in win probability at the moment it came, net of the opponent’s.

And interceptions?

Interceptions are only partly luck. FTN’s charting marks every throw a defender could have caught. How many of those a team throws is mostly its quarterback: it carries over from one season to the next at 0.39. Whether the defense holds on is closer to chance (0.02, 96 team-seasons), but within a season it runs with team quality, so our luck numbers leave interceptions out (methodology). Here are both sides, 2023.

TeamIts interception-worthy throwsPickedOpponents’ interception-worthy throwsCaughtCaught vs expected
Cowboys 1810 2416+4.1
Ravens 147 2918+3.6
Texans 278 2013+3.1
Dolphins 2214 2013+3.1
Saints 168 2515+2.6
Bills 2518 2917+2.6
49ers 1810 3017+2.1
Vikings 2413 1811+2.1
Bengals 2212 2514+1.6
Raiders 2515 2112+1.6
Giants 169 3418+1.2
Lions 1812 2413+1.1
Falcons 3317 148+1.1
Rams 149 148+1.1
Chiefs 2213 127+1.1
Steelers 229 2915+0.6
Colts 268 2513+0.6
Cardinals 2911 2010+0.1
Seahawks 2412 168+0.1
Bears 2312 3517−0.3
Eagles 2114 157−0.4
Buccaneers 236 2612−0.9
Patriots 3716 167−0.9
Broncos 198 2310−1.4
Commanders 3220 177−1.4
Jaguars 2311 3415−1.8
Chargers 237 176−2.4
Jets 1815 3414−2.8
Panthers 209 186−2.9
Packers 2011 217−3.4
Titans 3011 185−3.9
Browns 4120 4216−4.7

Interception-worthy throws: FTN Data via nflverse. Expected catches use each defense’s own record on such throws, shrunk toward that season’s league rate.

Questions

Which NFL team had the most fumble luck in 2023?

The Packers: they recovered 24 of the 34 fumbles in their games (71%), 6.9 more than expected, worth +0.90 wins, the most in the league.

Is turnover luck real?

For fumbles, yes. A loose ball goes back to the team that fumbled it 51.7% of the time, and a team that beats that rate one season doesn't the next: the correlation between consecutive seasons is 0.09 over 192 team-seasons since 2019. Interceptions are different: how many interception-worthy passes a quarterback throws carries over (0.39), so part of a team's turnover margin is skill.

Do teams that recover a lot of fumbles keep doing it?

No. Recovery rates since 2019 carry over from one season to the next at 0.09, close to the zero a coin would give. Teams at the top of this table usually land near the middle a year later.

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